Grab Road Favorite North Carolina -135 As Your NCAA Basketball Pick Against Struggling Duke

Charles Stark

Saturday, March 5, 2016 2:02 PM GMT

In an earlier matchup Duke shocked North Carolina in an amazing comeback. Will Duke overcome NC again, or will the Tar Heels get their revenge? Click here to see my NCAA basketball pick. 

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils
Currently, the NCAA basketball odds boards have the line now at a pick like at Heritage Sports -105. The line immediately dropped as Duke came out as a very small favorite around -1 to where it is currently. For my NCAA basketball pick I will back North Carolina at a pick to win this game. You might want to pay attention to how the line moves.

 

North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina on the season has shot 48.1% from the field, but last time out against Duke the only shot 43%. This game has huge implications for North Carolina because they are tied at the top of the ACC with Miami. I really believe they are not even focused on that aspect tonight because let's face it this is Duke and they want to get their revenge. The Tar Heels have been solid all season and their four league losses have been by an average of four points.

They rank ninth in the country in points per game and they rank in the top 20 in overall shooting and two point shooting percentage. As well they rank fifth and second in field goals attempted and made per game respectively. They have a lot of weapons on the offensive side and they're going to try get up and down the floor as much as possible.

On the defensive side I think they match up well with Duke and although some of their defensive numbers are not great, percentagewise they rank in the top part of the country in opponent overall and two point shooting percentage. In the last five seasons they've only won at Duke just once and another time have gone to overtime.

 

Duke Blue Devils
On the season Duke has averaged shooting 46.4% overall from the field but last time out against North Carolina they shot under 42%. This has been an impressive group considering they have not been very deep for most of the season and their win at North Carolina was one of the most impressive victories in college basketball this season.

Still, I believe North Carolina is the better team and they are well accustomed to playing at Duke. The Blue Devils have lost two times at home earlier this season to Notre Dame and Syracuse and have really struggled at times playing basically six guys. Defensively they allow opponents to get up and down the floor ranking in the very bottom part of the NCAA Tournament in opponent field goals attempted and made per game.

We can talk about the statistics ad infinitum but this comes down to match ups and Duke is simply not as good as North Carolina in my opinion despite their amazing comeback win the last time these two met.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: North Carolina -135
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline