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Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Odds, Picks, Predictions College Basketball: Can Home Favorite Gaels Hold Up?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: February 4, 2023 2:41 PM EST • 2 min 23 sec read.

Mitchell Saxen of the Saint Mary's Gaels shoots over Fousseyni Traore, Rudi Williams and Spencer Johnson of the Brigham Young Cougars on Jan. 28, 2023 at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah.
Mitchell Saxen of the Saint Mary's Gaels shoots over Fousseyni Traore, Rudi Williams and Spencer Johnson of the Brigham Young Cougars on Jan. 28, 2023 at the Marriott Center in Provo, Utah. Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images via AFP.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs historically owned their rivalry against the Saint Mary’s Gaels, but the Gaels are favored and undefeated in conference play. Can they keep that streak going? Read on for our top Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

After claiming last year’s matchup at McKeon Pavilion, Saint Mary’s (20-4, 9-0) defends home court against Gonzaga (19-4, 8-1) once again Saturday night.

The Bulldogs’ season-long trend of struggling against the spread on the road clearly impacts Saturday’s line. Will the Gaels hold up as the favorites in this rivalry battle?

Here is our best Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's college basketball pick (odds via Caesars Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our best March Madness betting sites.

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Game Info

  • Date: Saturday, Feb. 4, 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: McKeon Pavilion, Moraga, CA

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Odds

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Odds Analysis

The line opened with Saint Mary’s as 4.5-point home favorites. It since shifted toward Gonzaga across the board, with the Gaels now favored between 2.5 and 3.5 points. 63% of wagers were on Gonzaga.

The total opened at 141.5 and sharply decreased to between 136.5 and 137.5 across affiliated sportsbooks. 72% of wagers went Over with bettors taking advantage of the line shift in their favor.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Pick

Gonzaga +3.5 vs. Saint Mary’s (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in road games this season but that’s a misleading stat compared to how they’ve performed. They're 5-1 outright in those matchups, their only defeat coming in blowout fashion at Texas. Though the Dogs fell short of expectations in their margin of victory in West Coast Conference road contests, they haven’t lost a game on the road. 

Saint Mary’s is still a deserving favorite Saturday; the Gaels are one of the top-performing teams for bettors, going 15-8 ATS with the ninth-best average margin against the spread in Division 1. Saint Mary’s is 9-5 ATS in home games but lost two outright contests at home this year.

The Gaels beat the Bulldogs by 10 the last time these two opponents faced off in this building and Gonzaga’s team took a step back this season. But sleeping on the team with college basketball's No. 7 adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO) feels like an imprudent decision.

Saint Mary’s thrives on its highly-regarded defense but the Gaels could have trouble keeping pace with a Zags crew that leads the nation in scoring (84.9 PPG). The Gaels can score, too--they rank 43rd in AdjO--but stifling Gonzaga enough to win by two possessions is a lofty goal.

Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's Best Odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Gonzaga +3Gonzaga +2.5Gonzaga +3.5Gonzaga +3.5Gonzaga +3.5
-110-102-115-110-115

The lines and odds are all over the place on this matchup, so it’s important for bettors to shop around for the most favorable combination. For Gonzaga backers, look for that +3.5 spread, which BetMGM, Caesars and PointsBet currently offer. But only BetMGM has it with -110 odds rather than -115.

Avoid FanDuel if you want the best possible line, but their odds on Gonzaga +2.5 are -102, the lowest on the board. If FanDuel's line at +2.5 becomes the norm, this pick loses some luster in what should be a one-possession game either way. Consider it a mere two-star play if the value of +3.5 evaporates.

Gonzaga-Saint Mary’s pick made 2/4/2023 at 12:48 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Since graduating from the University of Missouri in 2016, Brenden Schaeffer has covered the St. Louis Cardinals and Blues hockey as a writer for KMOV in St. Louis. He also co-hosts 'The Big Show' on KTGR radio in Columbia, Missouri. The show airs in afternoon drive, weekdays from 4-6 p.m. Brenden has contributed to SBR since 2021, providing insights on NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, and the NBA. You can download his daily baseball podcast, B-Schaeff Daily, on Spotify or Apple podcasts, and you can find Brenden across social media @bschaeffer12.