Georgia Tech Defensive Prowess Creates Underdog Betting Value vs. NC State

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, January 15, 2017 7:47 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 15, 2017 7:47 PM UTC

SBR contributor Ross Benjamin previews Sunday’s NCAA basketball contest between Georgia Tech and NC State. Don’t make a move on this game without first reading this betting article, and it culminates with one of his trademark predictions.

Sunday 1/15 College Basketball Odds: Georgia Tech vs. NC State

The NC State Wolfpack (12-5) will host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-6) in an ACC battle on Sunday. An opening tip time of 6:30 PM ET is slated, and the game will be aired on ESPNU. This will be the first of two regular season meetings between these teams. They played once a season ago, and Georgia Tech came away with a 90-83 win as a 4.5-point road underdog. That contest soared over the total of 143.0.

Currently (9:50 AM ET), a consensus of the best sportsbooks indicates that NC State is an 8.5-point favorite, and there’s a posted total of 145.0.


Strong Home Court for Wolfpack

NC State is a perfect 10-0 on its home floor this season. As a matter of fact, the Wolfpack has gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 lined home games, and won by a substantial average of 24 points per contest. They’ve also seen 6 of their 7 lined home games go over the total, and there was a combined average of 161.1 points scored per contest.


Jackets Stout Defense and Abysmal Offensive Production

This season’s Georgia Tech team won’t ever be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut. The Yellow Jackets have scored 60 points or less in 6 of their 16 games played thus far. Those offensive struggles have been especially apparent over their last 5 games. During that stretch, they averaged 62.0 points scored per outing, and shot a terrible 38% from the field. Nevertheless, they still managed to go 3-2 in those contests, and their play defensively has been a catalyst in attaining that moderate success. Georgia Tech held their previous 5 opponents to a cumulative 39.7% shooting. As a matter of fact, Georgia Tech has held 7 of their last 8 opponents to less than 40% shooting.


Straight up Betting Angle

After an extended time of crunching some numbers, I came up with a very intriguing discovery. First let’s discuss what led me to a pertinent college basketball betting algorithm.

Georgia Tech is coming off a 75-63 win over Clemson in their previous game, and did so as a sizable 10.0-point home underdog. Conversely, NC State enters today having lost 2 straight games. Those 2 defeats came against ACC rivals North Carolina and Boston College.

Since 1997, any college basketball team (Georgia Tech) coming off an upset win as a double-digit underdog, and they’re facing a team (NC State) that’s lost to conference opponents in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those teams going 49-41 (54.4%) straight up since 1997. These straight up numbers take on added significance in this specific instance since it favors the underdog.


Final Take and Pick

Georgia Tech has already pulled off a few upsets this season. Besides the Clemson win it its last outing, they also knocked off North Carolina 75-63 as a 17.0-point home underdog, and VCU 76-73 as a 15.5-point road dog. I always give underdogs that are very good defensive teams serious consideration, and even more so during the 2nd half of the season. I’ve found enough in this precise betting situation to use the underdog for one of my Sunday college basketball picks.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Georgia Tech +8.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3096315, "sportsbooksIds":[93,19,238,1096,300], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here