Free Tournament Picks: Wichita State Will Take Care Of Miami-FL

Charles Stark

Saturday, March 19, 2016 11:35 AM GMT

One of the most surprising lines has come out in the tournament as Wichita State is favored over third-seeded Miami. Will Wichita State show why they are favored or will Miami advance?

NCAA tournament odds experts have made Wichita State a -2.5 favorite like at Pinnacle Sports -106. Again, this line is rare considering they are such a lower seed compared to Miami but for one of my NCAA tournament picks I will back the Shockers because I expect them to win this game by five or more points.

 

Miami Hurricanes
Miami averages 75.7 points per game and ranks in the top 25 in shooting efficiency, overall and two point shooting percentage. When I say the top 25 I really mean 25th but they do rank 23rd in their overall percentage. What kind of has me off on this game is the fact that Miami finished tied for second in the ACC and they're facing a team from a weaker division but are still the underdog. When we start to break down the matchup though it begins to make a lot of sense as the Wichita State team they are facing is no joke. Miami had some nice quality wins in the ACC but they struggled against teams that control pace and tempo with a mix of physical defense, this is exactly what they will face tonight. Defensively as mentioned they're good and could give the Shockers some trouble on that end the floor but at the same time despite their offensive efficiency this could arguably be the best defense they have faced all season.

 

Wichita State Shockers
Wichita State ranks first in NCAA basketball in opponent points per game, opponent assist per game, and opponent field goals made per game. They also rank third in the country allowing opponents to shoot just 38.2% overall and 41.8% on two point shooting which ranks eighth. Although they do come from a lesser conference they have been a program of note the last few seasons and can compete with the best teams in the country. They control tempo extremely well allowing opponents to get up only 49 attempts per game which ranks third in the country and play extremely solid fundamental defense. Offensively there is not a lot to shout about but they are decently efficient and they take care of the basketball as well as anyone in the country. Wichita State ranks fifth in the country offensively in turnover percentage per play and conversely they rank fourth in the country and opponents turnover percentage per play. Although they are favored they will probably come into this game feeling like underdogs facing an ACC team and they know their defense is the key to advancing.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Wichita State -1.5
Best Line Offered: at Bovada