Free NCAA Tournament Picks: Oklahoma & Buddy Hield Ready To Dominate Villanova

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, April 1, 2016 5:40 PM GMT

Oklahoma and Villanova met earlier this season.The Sooners bolted to an early lead and never looked back, recording a (78-75) victory. Get my free NCAA Basketball pick inside. 

Villanova (-2) vs. Oklahoma 6:05 ET
Today, the Wildcats are looking to get their revenge for one of only 5 losses this season. That includes an outstanding record in the Big East of 16-2 SU. In the Wildcats only revenge game of the year against Providence, they won on the road (72-60) as 5 point road chalk after suffering their only home loss of the season (82-76) as 13 point home favorite January 24th. Villanova has been scorching opponents all season long with a 4 perimeter attack, surrounding quality big man, Ochefu in the paint. The steadying hand of senior PG Arcidiacono runs the show with slashers and shooters such as Jenkins and Hart offering support.

After losing to Seton Hall in the Big East CCT Final (69-67), the Wildcats have stormed the NCAA handling increasingly more difficult opposition. With an 86-56 win over Asheville and an 87-68 win over Iowa, a 92-69 win over Miami and a 64-59 win over Kansas. Along the way, they have covered those four games by an amazing 54 points. Thus entering on a 4-0 SU ATS run, off a straight up dog win over the Tourney’s No. 1 seed, Kansas. That’s a bit too rich for my blood. Granted, Villanova is a (8.7) 3* fundamental team.

These teams are 22-15 ATS (60%) in the NCAA Tourney, when NOT facing another 3* fundamental team. Oklahoma is NOT with a negative net TO margin. Just to remind you, 3* fundamental teams have a positive rebound margin, a positive assist/TO ratio and a positive TO margin. The Wildcats drive and dish offense averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting (they hold opponents to just 40%). Nova knocks down 8.7 triples per game and seals the deal with 78% foul shooting. Impressive to be sure, yet our vote for today’s winner is the Oklahoma Sooners. 

Anyone who watched the best college basketball game of the year on January 4th saw Oklahoma lose a 3 OT game at Kansas, where the Jayhawks rarely lose (61-2 SU L4Y). Despite losing that game, the Sooners showed enough for them to be widely considered as the No. 1 team in the nation. Until the NCAA Tourney, however, they did not play to their potential. Since January 2nd, the 29-7 SU Sooner team went only 13-7 SU, following their loss to WVU in the CCT by a score of (69-67). That defeat also dropped them to a slide of 6-16 ATS since a cover vs. Washington St. (December 16th). But, fortunes have turned for the Sooners at just the right time.

After wins vs. Baker and VCU (the first weekend), the Sooners played incredible basketball in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, winning virtually wire-to-wire against A&M (77-63) and Oregon (80-63) covering those games by a combined 29 points. Now peaking at the perfect time, I believe the Sooners have the potential to win this event. Four experienced players in Hield, Cousins, Woodard and Spangler (over 100 consecutive starts together) have added Latin to their starting rotation for a group that clicks together with outstanding chemistry.

 

Betting Analysis
These Sooners score 81 PPG and knock down an amazing 10.4 triples at 43% from behind the arc. An outburst of 14 triples, as in the first game vs. Villanova, simply would not surprise! And, if the game comes down to crunch-time, we are more than ready to put our money on “the player.” That, of course, would be Buddy Hield (the best NCAA Basketball player in the nation).

I invite you to put the NCAA tournament odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA tournament pick on Oklahoma tonight. 

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Oklahoma +2
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes