Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Yale Will Keep It Close Against Duke

Charles Stark

Saturday, March 19, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

With some already big upsets happening we might have another one today when Yale takes on Duke in the NCAA basketball tournament. Can Yale pull off another stunning upset?

NCAA tournament odds experts have Yale at a +6 underdog like at Bookmaker -110. For one of my NCAA tournament picks today I will back Yale getting the points to keep this game close most of the way and take it down to the wire. Pulling off the upset will be extremely difficult but I believe they can stay within the number.

 

Yale Bulldogs
Yale averages 74.6 points per game but allows just 63.9 points per game which ranks 17th in the country. This a well coached team that plays really good fundamental basketball and with their upset of Baylor seem to have the talent to hang in with more athletic teams. Their offensive statistics are solid with an overall shooting percentage of 47% and they can score from the inside out. There are two things I really like about this team know and one is the fact that they get on the boards really well. Yale averages 40.1 rebounds per game which ranks 19th in the country but more impressively they allow opponents only 29.5 per game which ranks third in the country. Secondly, they play really good defense ranking in the top 30 in the country in opponent effective field-goal percentage, opponent shooting efficiency, and opponent field goals made per game. Of course this is a big step up in class against Duke, but the blue Devils are little bit down this season and this a good spot for Yale to keep this game close.

 

Duke Blue Devils
Duke averages 81.8 points per game which ranks 14th in the country and the average 9.1 three-pointers made per game which ranks 24th. There is not a lot to write about Duke in which most people don't already know, they are extremely well coached of course and they have been running a little bit thin this year having had some key injuries. Offensively they're still lethal but the issue I have with them in laying this many points to a good Yale team is that they haven't been that good on the defensive end. Duke ranks in the bottom part of NCAA basketball in opponent field goals made per game at 27.7 per contest. Although this could be attributed to the pace they like to push there isn't an excuse for them allowing opponents to shoot 44.5% from the field which ranks 219th out of all NCAA basketball teams. They also don't rebound the ball particularly well which could be a point of contention tonight. Sure they come out of the much tougher ACC but don't be surprised if Yale keeps this game interesting.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Yale +7
Best Line Offered: at Bovada