Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Top Money Line Dogs With Big Value

Doug Upstone

Saturday, March 12, 2016 4:02 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 12, 2016 4:02 PM UTC

The conference tournaments are winding down and we have some highly competitive matchups that could add a little extra juice to your wagering account if you are on the right side of money lines.

We have essentially locked ourselves into four underdogs with relatively short NCAA basketball odds which tell us the sportsbooks expect very close outcomes and few plays either way could determine actual outcome.

Each of these teams have proven this season they are capable of winning any contest and given the high stakes involved, it might make sense to use them on the money line for better payouts for your NCAA basketball picks.


1:30 ET - St. Joseph's +125 over Dayton
Excellent semifinal encounter in the A-10. In reviewing the numbers, Dayton deserves to be favored being just a little stronger on defense, shooting skill and rebound differential. Though the Flyers are a stellar 11-3 SU on the road, when you add in the point spread, they fall all the way to 7-6 ATS. St. Joe's on the other hand is 13-3 SU and ATS, winning by 7.7 points a game, compared to Dayton at 4.9 PPG. Let's also not forget the Hawks have enjoyed success against the Flyers, winning four of five matched with a 5-0 ATS. Also, with the total at 141, this plays into St. Joe's hands with 10-2 money line record when the total is in 140 to 149 range.


6:00 ET - Fresno State +170 over San Diego State
There has been a lot of sharp money on Fresno State the last two nights and we would not be shocked to see that happen again, both with the spread and the money line. The Bulldogs have won 10 of 11 (9-2 ATS) and one of those victories was at home against San Diego State, a 58-57 thriller. We all know the Aztecs play great defense, which again is their calling card this season. However, Fresno State could be the more complete team, being able to win with their offense or defense on a given night. No question the Aztecs deserve the nod for frequently being in this position the last several seasons, but I don't mind taking flyer on team that is 6-1 on the ML after three straight W's.


9:00 ET - Virginia -105 over North Carolina
The last two days we have finally caught a glimpse of North Carolina is capable off. After being lauded all season for their abundance of talent, when Marcus Paige starts making perimeter shots, the Tar Heels are as good as any team in the country. Why North Carolina is a scary pick to win the whole NCAA tournament and this ACC championship, is their lack of consistency. Virginia on the other hand is a model of consistency, with two losses by a total of four points on the road since Jan.18th lead by the fantastic Malcolm Brogdon. While some teams are intimated by the powder blue, the Cavaliers are not one of them and they realize they play a tougher brand of basketball and as long as they execute on both ends of the floor, they can cut down the nets. Virginia is 11-2 on the money line having covering eight or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1997.


10:00 ET - Utah +105 over Oregon
Oregon has won both contests over Utah this season, both by double digits but oddsmakers making the Ducks just a two-point favorite tells you what they think of the Utes at the moment. Utah is one of the most proficient offenses in the country, shooting 49.0 percent. In order to beat Oregon, the Utes have to take better care of the ball, having committed 29 total turnovers in the two matchups. Because they have a size edge, they have to box out better and win the battle of the boards by seven or more if they expect to be Pac-12 champs. This is the place where Utah ended six-game losing streak to Oregon.

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