It has been a wild campaign when it comes to betting college basketball, as the Top 10 has been in flux all season and even the top teams in any conference have taken their lumps.
With how this season is playing out, one can peruse the landscape and find underdogs with a legitimate chance to not over cover the spread but quite possibly win the game outright. This is precisely what we are looking today, trying to identify four teams for NCAA basketball picks who have a real chance to engineer an outright upset. The potential beauty of these choices is if we nail only half, we guarantee ourselves a winning day!
2:30 ET - Kansas +165 over Oklahoma
The first matchup this season was arguably one of the most entertaining to watch in the last five to 10 years, with Kansas coming out on top 109-106 in triple OT, despite Buddy Hield's 46 points. Oklahoma's strength is its ability to make shots with a dynamic three-point attack in which they convert on 11 a contest at a crazy 45.1 percent rate. Though the Sooners are playing with revenge, a close look finds their deep game off a little of late, down to 35.3 percent in their last three outings. Kansas shoots the ball well anyways and has made over 50 percent in their last five contests and its defense has improved. This season the Jayhawks are 7-1 SU against teams that shoot better than 45 percent and who permit less 42% of shots made. Kansas can pull this off.
2:30 ET - Xavier +155 over Butler
If you have seen Xavier play this seen, you realize they are legit Elite 8 material this season. The Musketeers are coming off their worst offensive showing of the season, losing at Creighton 70-56, shooting a miserable 30 percent at 21 for 70. If Xavier has a weakness, they will on occasion have nights like this but over the years, it is seldom two games in a row and do not ignore that they are 9-2 SU on the road this year. Butler will be playing with revenge at home, having lost in Cincinnati 88-69 last month. However, coach Chris Mack has a tough-minded crew that is 8-2 SU on the road after being a favorite and is 11-2 SU in away outings after scoring less than 60 points.
3:00 ET - James Madison +280 over UNC-Wilmington
Two of the top teams in the Colonial collide this afternoon. James Madison is tied for second place in the conference and one of their defeats was to first place UNC-Wilmington, 78-73 on the Dukes home floor. What chance would James Madison have to pull outright upset? The Dukes are the better defensive team (39.4% vs. 42%) and the Seahawks have been off defensively in allowing last two foes to shoot over 50 percent. This does mean James Madison will have the same success, yet it doesn't mean they cannot either. Yes, Wilmington is 10-1 SU at home, but the Dukes are 8-1 SU in true road encounters and 8-2 SU versus teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers more than halfway into the season.
10:00 ET - Gonzaga +215 over SMU
In late night action, these two squads step out of league play to do battle. After starting 18-0, SMU has lost three of five and it's lack of depth and possible hunger comes into question, knowing postseason ban is coming. This Gonzaga club is not as strong as the last few years with weaker guard play, though still very good in the frontcourt. In looking at all the numbers on offense and defense and strength of schedule, not much to choose from between these teams, thus, it would seem the Zags have real chance to improve to 12-1 on the money line in road games after three straight contests committing 14 or less turnovers the last two seasons.