Free College Basketball Picks: Monday NCAAB Value Plays

Steven Suarez

Monday, March 4, 2013 3:05 PM GMT

Here are two college basketball plays we think hold value.

It's not the biggest of slates tonight, so let's make sure we're extra careful with our sports picks.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Louisville Cardinals

Just two days after a huge road win over Syracuse, the Cardinals will try to take care of Cincinnati tonight as double-digit favorites.

That's right: Louisville is currently favored by ten points at most of the top online sportsbooks, while a low total of 120.5 can be found.

That was a terrific win for the Cardinals over the weekend, no one's denying that, but we think College Basketball odds makers may be overvaluing Rick Pitino's team here. Cincinnati is far from a pushover and that's a lot of points to cover in a Big East bruiser if you're Louisville.

Over the years, the Bearcats have always seemed to play the Cardinals tough. All seven of the previous meetings have been decided by nine points or less, while Cincinnati has gone 4-1 ATS in the past five matchups.

Cincinnati's struggles lately may be discouraging, but they did break a losing run by beating Connecticut 61-56 on Saturday. The Bearcats have a very talented backcourt in Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright, are good on the glass, and are capable of locking things down defensively. They're surrendering 59.1 PPG on 38.4 percent shooting overall and 30.0 percent from three this season.

This low total that's been set is making us feel better about our NCAA Basketball picks as well. In a game that should be ruled by defense and tough play, points could be hard to find on both sides, which means this double-digit spread is all the more appealing.

Read Jeff Grant's free pick for this game.

Louisville is just 5-9 ATS on their home court this season, while Cincinnati is at 8-4 ATS on the road. We like the points with the Bearcats.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Cincinnati Bearcats +10

[gameodds]14/222951/43/us[/gameodds]

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas Jayhawks

On Senior Night in Lawrence, we look for the Jayhawks to get out to one of their dominant starts against Texas Tech tonight.

Jeff Withey, Elijah Johnson, Travis Releford and Kevin Young are all seniors, so all four will be getting their fair share of minutes regardless of how lopsided the score may be.

The Kansas Jayhawks havs been on an absolute roll, winning six in a row both straight up and against the spread. Over their last four wins at home, their average margin of victory has been 24.8 points. The Jayhawks have lost just one time in Allen Fieldhouse and are 9-6 ATS there this season.

Meanwhile, the Red Raiders have lost nine of ten and are a poor 2-6 ATS in road matchups. Over the last couple of weeks they've lost to both Kansas State and Iowa State by 20, so you'd have to figure they're due for another beating tonight. 

In this season's first meeting between these teams, the Jayhawks won by 14 in Lubbock and held Texas Tech to 46 points in all. Jamal Williams Jr. was the only Red Raider to score in double figures.

Bill Self's team has been one of the most productive first-half teams this season and we think they'll jump out to a big lead once again.

In order to avoid a possible backdoor, we're staying away from a play on the full spread (which is at the massive number of 24.5), though we wouldn't be taken aback in the slightest if Kansas is still able to cover that.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Kansas Jayhawks -13 1H

[gameodds]14/222952/43/us[/gameodds]

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