Focusing on Small Schools for a Big Money Line Parlay

Evansville Aces

Rainman M.

Saturday, January 27, 2018 2:50 PM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 27, 2018 2:50 PM UTC

Add some extra betting fun to your Saturday with a three-teamer.  Green Bay, Kansas State and Evansville promise some extra cash for your bankroll.

Youngstown State Penguins vs Green Bay Phoenix

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Green Bay Phoenix (9-15 SU 9-9-1 ATS) hosts Youngstown State Penguins (6-16 SU 8-10-1 ATS) tonight at 1 ET. The Phoenix are favored by 4.5 points on the NCAAB Odds board.

Youngstown State is worth fading on the road. The Penguins are 1-12 SU on the road thus far. Their one win came against 5-17 Cleveland State. They won that game by three points despite having an insanely positive aberration of a shooting performance both inside and outside the arc. They are 5-14 SU in their last 19 against Green Bay and 1-15 SU in their last 16 road games at Green Bay. History is decidedly against them today.

The largest reason for Youngstown State's poor road play is that they lack the key ingredient to succeed away from home: defense. The Penguins rank 330rd in KenPom's defensive efficiency. They rank outside the top 300 in both two-point and three-point completion percentage allowed.

Another decisive factor that speaks against the Penguins is the lack of a consistent playmaker or leader. Point guard Cameron Morse takes their largest percentage of shots but he completes less than 40% both inside and outside the arc. He has scored ten points or fewer in three of his last four games.

Conversely for Green Bay, point guard Khalil Small leads the team with 33.8 minutes and 17.7 points per game. He is currently in strong form, producing 20+ points in three of Green Bay's past four games.

Green Bay has the leadership but also the depth from the bench to outlast the Penguins. Behind a better defense and with history on its side, expect the Phoenix to pull out a home win.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Kansas State Wildcats

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Kansas State Wildcats (15-5 SU 8-9 ATS) hosts Georgia Bulldogs (12-7 SU 8-10 ATS) today at 2 ET. The Wildcats are favored by 7.5 points.

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Wes: 👐
Dean: 🤷‍♂️
Barry: 🤪#KStateMBB: 😌

It was "a lifetime ago" but the last time the Cats faced Georgia, it was memorable. 📰 by @CorbinMcGuire1: https://t.co/BIWVSuGhQy https://t.co/nHSo4qOaf8

— K-State Men's Basketball (@KStateMBB) January 26, 2018
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Basketball life is proceeding smoothly for Kansas State without guard Kamau Stokes. The Wildcats have won four of their past five, the one loss being an extremely respectable one-point loss at Kansas.

Georgia is in a tough spot today, coming into this game with one fewer day of rest and having just played on Tuesday a double-overtime thriller which they lost. Georgia, contrary to Kansas State, is in poor form, going 1-4 SU in its last five games both overall and on the road.

Two match-up advantages will be decisive for K-State: the turnover battle and scoring inside. In order to achieve its second road win against a school in a major conference since taking advantage of a wretched shooting performance from Marquette to squeak by them, the Bulldogs will need to win the turnover battle. Problematically, they rank 258th in turnover percentage allowed and the Wildcats thrive at forcing turnovers, ranking 29th in percentage of turnovers forced. In three of Georgia's four road losses, Georgia lost the turnover battle.

Secondly, Georgia should have major problems scoring inside. Georgia lacks any shooter who completes over 37% from three. Instead, the Bulldogs prefer to score inside. However, K-State boasts a stout interior defense that allows the 300th-highest point distribution inside the arc. Center Dean Wade has been a consistent force for K-State, scoring 20+ points in four straight games and achieving five blocks in his past two games. Led by Wade, K-State can win the battle inside.

For your NCAAB Pick, expect the team in better form to take advantage of its match-up opportunities to win at home.

Drake Bulldogs vs Evansville Aces

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Evansville Purple Aces (13-9 SU 11-7 ATS) hosts Drake Bulldogs (12-10 SU 11-7-1 ATS) at 2 ET. The Aces are favored by 5.5 points.

The Aces are in a spot that has been increasingly solid for them under Marty Simmons, the home revenge spot. Last season, Evansville won four conference home games against four different teams who they had lost to on the road. On the flip side, Drake is in a tough spot on the road, where they are 4-21 SU in their last 25 road games and 0-5 SU in their last five road games at Evansville.

Evansville's strength is behind the arc. It ranks 17th in three-point completion percentage thanks especially to two players who rank in the top 100 in three-point completion percentage, guard Dru Smith and power forward Blake Simmons. In Evansville's home losses, they tended to have abysmal shooting performances. A catastrophe is very unlikely against Drake's mediocre-ranked perimeter defense. Simmons is also in a bounce-back situation. In six games he has scored fewer than double digits. In the game following each of these six games, he produced double digits.

Defensively, the Aces hold a strong advantage according to KenPom's efficiency rankings. Their greatest vulnerability is behind the arc. Drake doesn't seem prepared to take advantage of this weakness today, considering the poor form of its top shooter, Reed Timmer, who is 3-for-15 from three in Drake's past two games. Likewise, Drake’s second- and third-best shooters, Graham Woodward and Ore Arogundade, are combined 3-for-16 from three in their past two games. Overall, Drake lacks the playmakers to best a solid Evansville defense on the road.

The spot will be decisive for an Evansville home win today.

Free NCAAB Pick: Parlay: Green Bay, Kansas State, Evansville Money Line ParlayBest Lines Offered: at BetOnline
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