Florida, Duquesne Provide Home Chalk Value in NCAAB Wednesday

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 1:52 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 24, 2018 1:52 PM UTC

No. 20 Florida and Duquesne are betting favorites at home Wednesday. Each chalk has too much offense for the visitors, so giving the points in each matchup makes sense for your NCAAB picks.

Wednesday College Basketball: South Carolina vs. FloridaFree NCAAB Pick: Florida -10.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Dating to last season, South Carolina (12-7 SU, 8-9 ATS) has failed to score more than 70 points in six SEC road contests. It is 1-5 SU and ATS, shooting a paltry 36.5 percent from the floor. Forward Chris Silva, who leads the team with 14.5 points per game, has suited up for each. The junior is averaging 11.7 points and 5.2 rebounds in 23.3 minutes in this situation. The Gamecocks have not shot better than 40 percent in any of their last nine contests.

For South Carolina to compete, it boils down to how well coach Frank Martin’s defense executes. Past results show the Gamecocks must be elite in this spot, or they burn backers badly. Martin’s teams are 11-27 ATS all-time in conference road play when allowing 64 points or more. South Carolina enters with the 25th-most efficient defense in the country, according to KenPom’s adjusted figures.

Florida (14-5 SU, 10-8 ATS) averages 78.2 points per game at O’Connell Center hosting SEC foes during coach Mike White’s tenure, winning 17 of 21 overall. This year’s squad has plenty of scoring options with four players averaging double figures: Jalen Hudson (16.5 ppg), Egor Koulechov (14.4), Chris Chiozza (31.6), and KeVaughn Allen (11.3). Hudson, the Gators' sixth man, is the reigning SEC Player of the Week.

Florida, ranked 20th in the nation and a double-digit home favorite tonight on the NCAAB odds board, is second to Ole Miss in the SEC with a 1.39 assist-to-turnover ratio, leading the conference with a plus-4.8 turnover margin. The Gators have a history of hammering league opponents that show promise slowing this correlation. Hosting SEC foes with an opponent turnover-to-assist ratio of less than .90, White’s team is 7-1 SU and ATS all-time, covering a -7.3 line by 7.3 points per game. The Gamecocks enter with a .75 mark, ranking 22nd nationally. For your NCAAB picks, expect Florida to put on a show and avenge last year’s Elite Eight loss with an 80-65 victory.

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Grab some 🍿#OneTeam takes center stage at the @OConnellCTR tomorrow

🐊🏀 pic.twitter.com/Gi3fes8veD

— Gators Men’s Basketball (@GatorsMBK) January 23, 2018

Wednesday College Basketball: Richmond vs. DuquesneFree NCAAB Pick: Duquesne -3Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Duquesne (14-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) has played the easiest schedule in the nation per KenPom, making it tough to judge its success. It sits third in the Atlantic 10 with a 5-2 record, despite being voted last in the preseason coaches and media poll. Make no mistake about it, however, first-year coach and former Akron head Keith Dambrot has this bunch playing confident and well above expectations.

The squad is balanced on both ends of the court, but offense will be the difference-maker hosting Richmond (6-13 SU, 7-10 ATS). The Dukes field four players averaging double digits in points: Mike Lewis II (16.2), Eric Williams Jr. (15.0), Rene Castro-Caneddy (13.6), and Tarin Smith (12.3). Guard Lewis is the centerpiece. The sophomore is the leading scorer for the second year in a row, and tops the A-10 with 158 3-pointer attempts.

Lewis has a history of seeing Duquesne through at Palumbo Center against poor offensive teams. He is 13-4 SU in his career at home against foes averaging less than 71.5 points per game, winning the last five straight listed on the NCAAB odds board. This includes four conference opponents in 2017: Dayton (70-62), George Washington (69-52), La Salle (101-94), and George Mason (95-89). The Spiders post 68.8 points per game. With my NCAAB picks, I think the Dukes will win 70-64.

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