Finding NCAA Basketball Betting Value in Tonight's Pac 12 Action

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, January 22, 2015 4:40 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2015 4:40 PM UTC

Washington Huskies visit the Colorado Buffalos for a PAC 12 matchup in Boulder, Colorado.  Note that since Colorado joined the PAC 12 3 years ago, these teams have met twice in Boulder.

Washington vs. Colorado (-1-) 9:00 ET FSN
At 9:00 pm ET tonight, the Washington Huskies visit the Colorado Buffalos for a PAC 12 matchup in Boulder, Colorado. Note that since Colorado joined the PAC 12 3 years ago, these teams have met twice in Boulder.  Each of those two meetings has resulted in Colorado victories.  It was 87-69 in 2012 and 91-65 in 2014, when Colorado was an 8 point college basketball odds favorite.  Each of these teams enters this game with a PAC 12 record of 2-3 SU ATS.  Let’s go inside the numbers to find the value in this game and the ATS winner.

Washington struggled the last 2 seasons with a combined 35 wins.  They failed to make the post season last year, losing in the 1stround of the PAC 12 Tournament.  This year has been a bounce back season under 13th year HC Lorenzo Romar.  The addition of Robert Upshaw, a Fresno St. transfer, has given the Huskies an interior presence, along with Shawn Kemp, Jr.  They balance the floor well with a veteran backcourt of Williams-Goss and Andrew Andrews.  The Huskies enter following consecutive home victories vs. the Oregon schools.  Prior to that, they were on a 0-4 SU, 0-5 ATS slide.  This included losses in their only 2 lined road games to date at California by a count of 81-75 and at Stanford (68-60).  Now, they must travel to altitude with the realization that they have yet to win a conference game on the road.  There they will find an angry Buffalo.

Just as Washington has shown a home/road dichotomy in league games, so has Colorado.  The Buffs are 0-6 SU ATS on the road this year, including 3 consecutive PAC 12 road losses by 25 at Utah, 14 at Arizona and 6 at Arizona St.  Prior to that, they won and covered their 2 PAC 12 home games by 21 vs. USC and 6 vs. UCLA.  The Buffs are now 8-1 SU on this floor this year, running their record to 50-8 SU at the Coors Center L3+Y.  Recent failings may be blamed on the suspension of Xavier Johnson and the back injuries of Josh Scott.  Neither of those players is expected to make post again this evening.  But, Colorado has played through injury before, when they finished last season strong enough to get an NCAA bid after losing Dinwiddie in early January (their best player). In 4 years at Colorado, 5th year HC Boyle has won 21 or more victories each season for a total of 92 wins.  Do not expect he or the Buffs to lie down in the face of this losing streak.  There is still plenty of talent on the floor from the kids from Boulder. 

There are some strong situations working in Colorado’s favor tonight.  First is the altitude factor which finds winning teams playing at home at mile-high altitude to be a better than 65% ATS play, if they are well rested and coming off consecutive defeats.  In addition, know that the minions of Washington HC Romar are just 12-25 ATS when taking to the road following 3 consecutive home games. Finally is the bounce back tendency for teams coached by Tad Boyle.  His players are 23-5 ATS following consecutive defeats.  All the above give us ample reason to lineup with Colorado at this value price for this Pac 12 match NCAA basketball pick.

Free College Basketball Pick: Take Colorado

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