Finding NCAA Basketball Betting Value on Monday's Card

Darin Zank

Monday, December 8, 2014 3:50 PM GMT

Monday, Dec. 8, 2014 3:50 PM GMT

Coming off its first defeat of the season Miami (Fla.) figures to bounce back against Savannah State as big favorites in College Basketball odds over the Tigers, if this game is even lined. 

Tigers-Hurricanes Betting Odds
As of early Monday morning this game had not been lined, probably because of the obvious mismatch. And there's no guarantee any book will put out a line on this game. Still, these teams just met one year ago, and while Miami dominated, it only won by 17 points. So we're not sure what the books are afraid of.

 

Tigers-'Canes: The Match-Up
Miami returns just two starters this season from a team that went 17-16 and missed the NCAA tournament last year. The 'Canes had to replace over 75 percent of their offensive production from a season ago. But they added a couple of transfers who might help in doing so, in former Kansas State G Angel Rodriguez and former Texas G Sheldon McClellan.

Miami opened this season with eight straight wins, including a 69-67 victory over Florida and a 70-61 victory over Illinois. But the run came to an end Saturday when the 'Canes got upset at home by UW-Green Bay 68-55, falling outright as 11-point favorites. Miami shot just 33 percent from the floor, made just five of 20 shots from beyond the arc, and got outrebounded 46-37.

For the season Miami is shooting 47 percent from the field, 41 percent from 3-point land and 74 percent from the FT line. The 'Canes are also holding foes to just 39 percent FG shooting.

Last time out Miami started a senior, three juniors and a sophomore.

Savannah State returns just one starter this season from a team that went 13-19 overall last year, 10-6 in the MEAC. So the Tigers also have several holes to fill.

Savannah State opened this season with a 76-53 loss at Eastern Kentucky, and a 66-47 loss at Marshall. The Tigers then beat Winthrop 59-58, shooting 50 percent from the floor, then beat Cleveland State in overtime 87-83, shooting 52 percent from the floor.

Savannah State then ran into a dose of reality and suffered an 87-26 blowout loss to Louisville.

The Tigers then lost a close game at Jacksonville State 74-71, then let Winthrop get revenge in a 68-47 loss. They then picked up a victory over something called Middle Georgia State, but last time out, last Saturday, Savannah State lost at Indiana 95-49, coming up way short against the spread as 23-point dogs.

The Tigers trailed the Hoosiers 43-17 at the half, ended up shooting just 32 percent from the field, and allowed Indiana to shoot 57 percent.

On the season Savannah State is shooting just 39 percent from the floor, 25 percent from 3-point range and a lowly 55 percent from the FT line. The Tigers are also averaging almost 21 turnovers per game.

Last time out Savannah State started a junior, two sophomores and two freshmen.

These teams met just last season, when Miami went to Savannah and beat the Tigers 68-51. The 'Canes led that game by 22 early in the second half, allowed Savannah State to get within 12, but iced the game from there.

Miami shot 57 percent from the floor that night, including 7/14 from 3-point range, held the Tigers to just 39 percent shooting and won the battle on the boards by a 34-21 margin.

That game was unlined.

 

Tigers-'Canes Betting Trends
Savannah State games have averaged 131 points.

Miami games have averaged 135 points.

 

Tigers-'Canes Free Pick
We've got a pretty good idea of who's going to win this game; it's just a matter of the final tally. And Miami might be out for blood, after a poor performance last time out against Green Bay. Even though this game was not lined as of this writing, we'd be willing to give up 20 points with the 'Canes.

Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Miami ATS up to -20 points

Be sure to check our Live NCAA Basketball Betting Odds page to find the best value.

comment here