Final Tips for Finding Betting Value in Undefeated Home Teams With Your NCAA Basketball Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, March 3, 2015 8:23 PM GMT

This is the first part of  a 3-part article published which gives a final report on 3 key areas of situational handicapping. The content in this 3-part article relates to the Undefeated Homers you can count on for for maximum profit in the final weeks of this NCAA basketball season.

This is your final update of Undefeated Homers as we head into the final week of regular season play. The original list of 29 undefeated home teams, as published in early February, has now been reduced to only 13 teams. It will be no surprise if 3 more Undefeated Homers bite the dust in this final week of play. In this past week, we saw quality home teams such as Gonzaga, Iowa St, San Diego St, and Utah all lose at home. It can happen to any team. We have profited handsomely from this list in the month of February, and expect to do so in the final week of the season. We can add to our list of situational plays “Last Home Games.”

 

Team

YTD

SU HM

PREV 3Y

SU HM

YTD SU

CON HM

YTD ATS

HM

ALL HF

-12+

CON HF

-12+

Arizona

15-0

46-5

7-0

11-3

10-3

5-1

Cal Davis

12-0

17-26

6-0

7-2

0-1

0-1

Dayton

15-0

50-12

8-0

6-6

3-1

2-1

Iona

14-0

29-5

9-0

3-8

2-2

2-1

Kansas

14-0

46-2

8-0

7-5

3-3

1-2

Kentucky

18-0

50-4

8-0

10-7

9-7

4-4

LA Tech

15-0

36-5

8-0

5-7

2-6

2-4

N Dakota St

14-0

12-1 LY

8-0

5-3

0-0

0-0

N Iowa

15-0

40-9

9-0

4-9

2-7

2-4

ODU

15-0

26-28

7-0

7-5

3-3

2-3

S Dakota St

13-0

11-3 LY

8-0

8-2

0-1

0-0

Villanova

15-0

30-6

8-0

11-3

7-3

3-1

Wichita St

14-0

43-4

9-0

7-5

6-3

4-2

 

As you can see from the chart above, these undefeated teams have gone a profitable 91-65 ATS (58.3%). The columns above also show how dangerous it can be to lay 12 or more points on the NCAA Basketball odds as a Conference home favorite. Even for these undefeated teams, that record is just 52.9%. Thus, if we subtract the record of these teams who are laying 12 or more points as the Conference favorite from the year to date mark, we get some nice profit with a record of 64-41 ATS, good for 61% profit. Continue to use these situations when placing your NCAA Basketball picks in the profitable way that we have last month, remembering to add LHG situations, as well as using prudence of NOT laying more than 12 points on their home court.