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5 Key NCAA Final Four Betting Trends to Know

Henry John

Last Updated: March 31, 2022 8:48 AM EDT • 4 min 52 sec read.

Head coach Hubert Davis of the North Carolina Tar Heels cuts the net after defeating the St. Peter's Peacocks, 69-49, in the Elite Eight round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Wells Fargo Center on March 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Penns
Head coach Hubert Davis of the North Carolina Tar Heels cuts the net after defeating the St. Peter's Peacocks, 69-49, in the Elite Eight round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Wells Fargo Center on March 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. at Wells Fargo Center on March 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images via AFP.

With the NCAA Final Four coming up this weekend, we spotlight five interesting and potentially impactful March Madness betting trends to know for the college basketball national semifinals.

As the text on the court says each year, "The Road Ends Here." After a thrilling NCAA Tournament that had a little bit of everything, we have reached the national semifinals. Of course, this round is better known as the Final Four. The winners from each region of the March Madness bracket will battle for the right to cut down the nets as this year’s college basketball national champion.

SEE ALSO: March Madness Top Picks and Odds

The 2022 NCAA Tournament Final Four will be hosted at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. This marks the first time since 2012 that the "Big Easy" has hosted the men’s Final Four. Overall, it is the sixth time in the history of the tournament that the national semifinals and title game will be contested in New Orleans. 

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While this year’s version of March Madness featured plenty of upsets and one of the greatest Cinderella runs of all time, the Final Four is comprised solely of high-profile college basketball programs. No matter which way you slice it, a “Blueblood” will be taking home the national championship this year. 

From a betting perspective, there are plenty of team-specific trends to note for the four semifinalists. Over the years, several pertinent Final Four betting trends have also emerged. While it is never advised to bet solely based on trends, they are always worth noting if for no other reason than they are quite fascinating.

Final Four Betting Trends to Know

The following sections share and discuss five of the strongest and/or most interesting NCAA Final Four betting trends to know ahead of Saturday’s semifinal games.

Final Four Trend No. 1: Outright winners usually cover

Outright winners in national semifinal games are also 32-6-2 ATS since 2001.

When it comes to sports betting, there are trends and then there are TRENDS. Dare we say that a cover percentage of 84.2% spanning 20 years falls in the latter category? In a nutshell, teams that manage to win their national semifinal games outright are a pretty good bet to also cover the point spread. 

SEE ALSO: Final Four Best Bets

Note that this Final Four betting trend is applicable to both favorites and underdogs. No matter which side of the point spread the outright winner is on, they have largely been able to cover the number in addition to booking a spot in the National Championship. 

Obviously, should either underdog win outright, they would also cover the spread. Thus, the path to covering the spread for Villanova and North Carolina is clear. For Kansas to align with this strong Final Four betting trend, it would need to beat Villanova by five or more points. Duke would need the same margin of victory as the favorite for its semifinal battle against UNC.

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Final Four Trend No. 2: Favorites with the flex

In the last six NCAA Tournaments, only two underdogs have managed to win a national semifinal game outright.

When one blends this second Final Four betting trend with the first one discussed above, it is clear that favored teams have managed to win and win big in recent years. If one thing is certain, it's that bookmakers have done a pretty good job of assigning the roles of favorite and underdog of late.

SEE ALSO: Villanova vs. Kansas Picks

The only two teams to win a national semifinal game in which they went off as the dog were Wisconsin in 2015 and Texas Tech in 2019. This trend clearly favors a 2022 National Championship matchup between Duke and Kansas. While it doesn’t guarantee that either favorite will also cover the spread, the combination of this and our first Final Four betting trend certainly suggests this could be likely.

SEE ALSO: Final Four Prop Bets

Final Four Trend No. 3: 130 is the magic number

The last seven national semifinal games with a total of 130 or fewer points all cashed the Under. In all other games, the Over is 21-14-2 since 1999.

One commonality that is shared by each of this year’s national semifinalists is that their offensive efficiency rankings are better than their respective defensive rankings. The table below looks at the KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency numbers for each team.

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By combining the stats above with the Final Four betting trend that games with betting totals greater than 130 have tended to cash the Over, there is reason to favor similar results again this year. While there are other factors that go into handicapping college basketball totals, like tempo, it’s clear that the offenses in this year's Final Four are more than capable. The 21-14-2 record to the Over in the trend that dates back to 1999 equates to a 60% cover rate. 

At the time of writing, bettors can find the Villanova-Kansas total listed as low as 132.5 in the betting market. Meanwhile, all sportsbooks are in agreement on a line of 151 as the total for the North Carolina-Duke Final Four matchup.

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Final Four Trend No. 4: First-time coaches rise to the moment

Since 2005, a total of 19 coaches reached their first-ever NCAA Tournament Final Four. These first-time coaches combined to go 12-6-1 ATS and 11-8 SU in their maiden national semifinal games.

Of all the Final Four betting trends we have explored thus far, this one may be the most surprising. Not only have first-time coaches managed to cover the point spread at a 67% clip since 2005, but they have even managed to win the majority of games outright!

SEE ALSO: North Carolina vs. Duke Picks

Some of the most synonymous names in college basketball are head coaches. Unlike professional sports, all players will eventually graduate and move on. Thus, legendary coaches become the mainstay and face of their respective programs. Three of this year’s Final Four coaches certainly fall into that category. Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, Villanova’s Jay Wright, and Kansas’ Bill Self are among the best in the business. All three have won at least one national championship before. Clearly, this isn’t the first Final Four rodeo for any of them.

The one coach who does fit this trend in the 2022 Final Four is North Carolina’s Hubert Davis. While he was an assistant on Roy Williams’ staff that led the Tar Heels to the title in 2017, this will be Davis’ first Final Four as the head man. In order to continue the success of first-time head coaches in the national semifinals, Davis would need to best Krzyzewski and send the long-time Duke coach into retirement.

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Final Four Trend No. 5: 1-Seeds assert themselves

No. 1-seeds facing lower-seeded teams in national semifinal games are 16-5 SU and 11-9-1 ATS since 2001.

Getting through the March Madness bracket to reach the Final Four is not easy, even for No. 1 seeds. In this year’s tournament, Kansas was the only top seed to win its region. Both Duke and Villanova were the 2-seed in their respective regions while North Carolina was merely an 8-seed. 

While Kansas certainly cannot bank on anything, Final Four betting trends do favor the Jayhawks as a 1-seed. Since 2001, top seeds that have survived to reach the national semifinals have an outright winning percentage of 76%. 

These same 1-seeds have also managed to cover the point spread in national semifinal games 55% of the time. The Jayhawks are 4.5-point favorites ahead of Saturday’s showdown matchup against Villanova.

Where to Bet on March Madness

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.