March Madness Final Four Prop Bets: Best Picks for Spread, Team Total, More

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 30, 2022 6:45 AM EDT • 3 min 64 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - MARCH 26: Head coach Jay Wright of the Villanova Wildcats reacts during the second half of the game against the Houston Cougars in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Elite 8 Round at AT&T Center on March 26, 2022 in San Antonio, Texas. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Maddie Meyer / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

This year's Final Four is loaded with many of college basketball's most storied programs and is the first Final Four in history where all four participants have won at least three national championships. So let's dive into our best Final Four prop bets for these two exciting matchups.

Duke and North Carolina have met 257 times (including twice in the regular season), but this is the first NCAA Tournament matchup of one of the sport's biggest rivalries. In addition, Villanova and Kansas have familiarity with each other, as they have met four times since 2016, including twice in the NCAA Tournament. Thus, bettors seemingly have a lot of first-hand information to make their wagers on the two Final Four games.

Here are the top prop bets for the March Madness Final Four matchups (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

March Madness Final Four Prop Bets

Kansas team total Under 68.5 (-108) ???Caleb Daniels Over 11.5 points (-102) ????Villanova +1.5 1st-half spread (-120) ????North Carolina/Duke halftime/fulltime result (+500) ??Brady Manek Over 16.5 points (-120) ???

Final Four Prop Bet Predictions

Kansas team total Under 68.5 (-108 via FanDuel)

While Villanova is known more for its 3-point shooting prowess and high-IQ offensive players, the Wildcats' cohesion and connectedness on defense have gone largely unnoticed. Villanova has not allowed more than 65 points in any of its last eight games and has held its four NCAA Tournament opponents to an average of 55 points. And while Kansas presents the biggest challenge offensively of any of Villanova's opponents, we expect Villanova's defense to keep it in the game again.

Wildcats head coach Jay Wright knows he has a limited bench with Justin Moore out with a torn Achilles. The Wildcats always played at a slow tempo (345th in Division I) entering this game but will likely want this game at even more of a snail's pace considering their limited bench. Thus, this game will have far fewer possessions than what Kansas is accustomed to, so a lack of opportunities to score combined with Villanova's solid defensive principles should keep the Jayhawks Under their projected total.

FanDuel and DraftKings offer the same number for this team total, but FanDuel's juice is much more appealing than DraftKings' -120 odds.

Daniels Over 11.5 points (-102 via FanDuel)

In the wake of Moore's season-ending injury, Villanova's Caleb Daniels goes from the sixth man to a starting role. However, Daniels was not utilized like a typical sixth man, as he has played at least 30 minutes in each of the last seven games. More than that, when opposing defenses have clamped down on Moore and Collin Gillespie, Wright has trusted Daniels to win his one-on-one matchups, as Daniels is often guarded by one of the opponent's weaker perimeter defenders. Daniels has responded by scoring in double figures in three of Villanova's four NCAA Tournament games and will be counted upon for much more offense in Moore's absence.

FanDuel's 11.5-point projected total is one of the most generous out there, as many sportsbooks like DraftKings are offering an Over/Under of 12.5 for Daniels' points.

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Villanova +1.5 1st-half spread (-120 via DraftKings)

While many bettors expect Villanova's limited bench to eventually be its downfall in this game, that should not impact the Wildcats' ability to compete in the first half.

Villanova has been a notoriously fast starter in the NCAA Tournament, winning the first half in its last seven tournament games. Conversely, Kansas has not gotten off to fast starts so far this tournament. The Jayhawks trailed Miami by six points at halftime, scored just 26 points in the first half against Providence (though led by nine), and held a one-point halftime lead over a depleted Creighton roster.

Dating back to 2004, Villanova and Wright have had tremendous success against Kansas and Bill Self. The Wildcats are 5-3 straight up and have held the Jayhawks to fewer than 60 points four times. Thus, we trust Villanova to keep this game close, especially in the first half.

North Carolina/Duke halftime/fulltime result (+500 via DraftKings)

In the two regular-season meetings between Duke and North Carolina, the Blue Devils led at halftime both times but split those two games as the Tar Heels had a tremendous second half in the finale and won outright. Given Duke's ability to turn it on down the stretch and outplay Michigan State and Texas Tech late in the second half, we are intrigued by the +500 odds of wagering on North Carolina to lead at halftime, but for Duke to win outright.

This game may come down to Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski's adjustments and how he outmaneuvers first-year head coach Hubert Davis. Thus, a UNC/Duke halftime/fulltime result wager is a great way to get on board with that idea.

Manek Over 16.5 points (-120 via DraftKings)

North Carolina's Brady Manek has been on fire over the last eight games. The senior forward averaged 19.9 points per game and shot 43.5% (27-for-62) in that span from 3-point range.

Manek averaged 20.5 points in the two regular-season games against the Blue Devils, making this 16.5-point projected total seem low. His skill set is the perfect foil to Duke's defense, as the Blue Devils have often defended the pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop poorly. In addition, if Coach K chooses to play a lot of zone defense against the Tar Heels like he has the last two games, Manek should be able to find soft spots and use his 3-point prowess to attack it.

Manek's point total odds are as high as 17.5 points at other sportsbooks like FanDuel, so we will opt for DraftKings' lower projected total for more value.

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Written By:
Mike Spector

I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.