Final Four Picks: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky Over/Under Odds Shifting

Ross Benjamin

Monday, March 30, 2015 4:07 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 30, 2015 4:07 PM UTC

We share our earliest betting odds analysis for Saturday’s Final Four matchup between Wisconsin and Kentucky, including an early lean regarding the total. Read his revealing betting preview article for details.

National Semifinals Rematch between Badgers and Wildcats
The undefeated and NCAA Tournament #1 overall seed Kentucky Wildcats (38-0) will take on the Wisconsin Badgers (35-3) on Saturday in a national semifinal game. The contest will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana with the opening tip slated for 8:49 PM ET. According to the opening NCAA Tournament Odds at 5Dimes, Kentucky was installed as a 6.0 point favorite, and the total was 133.0. Since that time, Kentucky has dropped to a 5.0 point favorite, and the total has fallen to 131.0. This will be a rematch of a thrilling 2014 NCAA Tournament Semifinal game which was won by Kentucky 74-73.


Two Defensive Dynamos
The Wisconsin Badgers may not be anywhere near as good defensively as Kentucky, but they’re still very stout in that regard. The Badgers are allowing just an average of 57.8 points per game for the season. Although it must be noted that in their four NCAA Tournament games, they’ve allowed an average of 71.8 points per contest and opponents have shot a robust 48.1% from the field.

The Kentucky Wildcats may be remembered as one of the best defensive teams in modern college basketball history after it’s all said and done. The Wildcats are allowing only 53.9 points per game, and have held opponents to an awful 35.2% shooting from the field. They’ve seen each of their four NCAA Tournament games go under the total, and there was an average of 125.3 points combined scored per contest.


Final Analysis and Early Lean
It’s very rare to see a college basketball total drop two points this early in the process. Neither of these teams has shown a tendency to play at what’s considered to be a torrid pace, and with a week to prepare, I look for both coaching staffs to be on top of things regarding their defensive game plans. Although I’m uncommitted at this juncture, my early lean is on the low side of the total. I will firm up my Final Four NCAA Tournament Picks later on in the week, and I’ll share my thoughts on that specific subject  right here at Sportsbook Review.

Early Lean NCAA Tournament Pick: Under 131.5 at The Greek

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