Fast Tempo Teams Collide in Premier Mountain West Aztecs-Cowboys Matchup

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, December 27, 2017 2:09 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2017 2:09 PM UTC

Mark Lathrop is back with a premier Mountain West Conference matchup on Wednesday that has a combination of ATS trends and advanced data to point us in the right direction. Read on as he grabs a total that can't be passed up on Wednesday.

San Diego State Aztecs vs Wyoming Cowboys

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Free NCAAB Pick: Over 148Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

The Mountain West Conference isn’t making us wait for one of the best matchups of the season as the San Diego State Aztecs travel to the altitude of Laramie, WY to take on the Wyoming Cowboys. This is the conference opener for both teams, yet Wyoming has played two more games than San Diego State and come in with a 9-4 SU and 6-3 ATS record. San Diego State has put up an 8-3 SU record in non-conference games, yet has an identical 6-3 ATS record with the Cowboys. Even though the records are similar, overall power rankings have San Diego State at 56th and Wyoming at 135th. This is one of the reasons that the Aztecs find themselves as 3.5-point favorites on the road in this spot. The O/U total has opened at 148 at early line books such as BookMaker.

San Diego State is coming off of a great win against the AP 20th ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Aztecs shot horribly in that game going 15-38 from 2pt range and 7-23 from beyond the arc, but still won due to some home cooking and a 26-17 free throw advantage. It was also 6’ 4” senior guard Trey Kell’s second game back after being injured, with the star putting up 14 points in a very efficient 23-minute span. It was also a good comeback after San Diego State lost to Cal the game before at home in a game they were favored by 16.5-points. There was 12 days between those games and the Aztecs will be coming off of 5 days rest for this matchup.

Wyoming ran into a hot-shooting team in Northern Colorado their last game out, as Northern Colorado beat them SU as 9-point underdogs 84-91, a few days after beating Wyoming at home in Laramie as underdogs too. Wyoming has a positive home and away offensive split averaging 84 points at home on the year compared to 77.3 points overall. This is an interesting split to examine since the Aztecs have a negative home and away defensive split – allowing 72.0 points on the road versus 64.7 points overall. That trend has played on in totals wagering as well, with San Diego State and Wyoming carrying identical 4-1 O/U records into this situation.

San Diego State has increased their tempo this year under first year head coach Bryan Dutcher. Their adjusted tempo has gone from 309th in the NCAA in 2017 to 59th this year. Wyoming on the other hand always plays fast and is ranked 34th in the NCAA in adjusted tempo this season. We may see some downward pressure on this total line because San Diego State is coming in with a 4-0 Under streak, but three of those games were at home. The home and away splits and tempo for both of these teams point to taking the Over as our Wednesday NCAAB pick.

2017-18 NCAAB Record: 19-10, +8.35Units

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