Explosive Offense Makes SMU -10 Our NCAA Basketball Pick vs. Tulsa

Jake Walker

Wednesday, February 10, 2016 1:17 AM GMT

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane (15-8) visit Moody Coliseum to face the No. 16 SMU Mustangs (20-1). SMU is favored by 10 points on the NCAA Basketball odds board and the total has not been set.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: SMU -10 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage 

 

Tulsa Golden Hurricane
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are 7-3 in 10 games since losing 81-69 in their first meeting against SMU. Tulsa is coming off an impressive 77-63 win against Houston last Saturday behind Pat Birt's 27 points, which tied his season-high. Tulsa who 52 percent, 42 percent from beyond the arc and outrebounded Houston 32-23.

Tulsa scores 73.3 points per game and shoots 43.9 percent from the floor and 32.4 percent from three-point range arc and they pull down 35.3 rebounds per game. The Golden Hurricane allow 68.0 points per game and their opponents shoot 41.0 percent overall and 35.0 percent from beyond the arc and pull down 33.7 rebounds per game. James Woodard leads the team with 16.2 points per game, Shaquille Harrison averages 15.1 points and team-bests with 5.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.0 steals and Pat Birt adds 11.0 points per game.

 

SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 over their last four games, including losses against Temple and Houston, but they're coming off a 92-58 beatdown win against South Florida. Shake Milton led the way with 22 points and Nic Moore scored 17, helping SMU match the best 22-game start in school history. 

The Mustangs average 80.0 points per game on 50.6 percent shooting overall (4th in the nation) and 42.0 percent shooting from three-point range and they pull down 39.9 rebounds per game. Defensively, SMU allows 63.6 points per game and their opponents shoot 39.8 percent from the floor and 33.8 percent from beyond the arc. Nic Moore leads the Mustangs with 15.8 points, 5.0 assists and 1.3 steals, Ben Moore averages 12.3 points and 7.0 rebounds and Jordan Tolbert adds 12.1 points and 9.0 rebounds. 

 

Betting Trends
Tulsa is 2-3 ATS as an underdog, 6-3 ATS after a conference game and 8-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

SMU is 8-10 ATS as a favorite, 5-6 ATS against conference opponents and 5-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

 

Final Analysis
SMU is a 10-point favorite on the NCAA Basketball odds board and the total has not been set. This is an intriguing matchup because SMU has been on a roll, despite losing two of their last four games (their only setbacks this season) and Tulsa is playing decent basketball and needs this win to improve their NCAA Tournament chances.

I like SMU to win this home game comfortably because they're a high-scoring team that shoots the ball well and plays good defense. Also, keep in mind that SMU won 81-69 at Tulsa. I'm taking SMU and their balanced offense to cover -10 with my NCAA Basketball picks.

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