Friday's Top College Basketball Expert Picks: Michigan State-Wisconsin Set for Key Fight

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: January 21, 2022 8:07 AM EST • 4 min 33 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

EAST LANSING, MI - JANUARY 05: Tyson Walker #2 of the Michigan State Spartans dunks the ball during the game against Lat Mayen #11 of the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the first half at Breslin Center on January 5, 2022 in East Lansing, Michigan. Rey Del Rio/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Rey Del Rio / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Keep reading for our top college basketball expert against the spread and Over/Under picks for Friday’s schedule.

Our hoops experts select their top ATS and O/U picks for the Jan. 21 college basketball games (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on 1-to-5 star scale).

Friday’s Top College Basketball Picks

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Top College Basketball Expert Spread Picks

St. Francis NY +2.5 (-110)

There are few teams that have struggled more this season than Fairleigh Dickinson. The Knights are 2-14 on the season, and they are coming off a 31-point blowout loss at Wagner on Monday. Friday, they host a St. Francis NY team that has been much more competitive than their 4-13 record would indicate. The Terriers battled St. John's to just a six-point loss, earned a 71-60 home win over Saint Peter's, and lost by just five points at Wagner on Saturday.

Fairleigh Dickinson wants to play fast, but sacrifices turnovers in the process. The Knights rank 287th in offensive turnover percentage, per KenPom.com, while shooting a miserable 41.9% from inside the arc. The Knights will be severely tested on the defensive boards, facing a St. Francis team that ranks first in the NEC in defensive rebounding.

FDU shouldn't be favored against any Northeast Conference opponent at any time. I'm grabbing the 2.5 points with Saint Francis, even on the road in Teaneck, NJ. - Randle

Illinois -4.5 (-110)

Illinois and Maryland feels like a battle of Big Ten teams that are about to head in vastly different directions. Illinois got guard Andre Curbelo back from an 11-game absence in their last game against Purdue. Curbelo played like he has not missed any time all year, seamlessly transitioning back to handle 26 minutes and scoring 20 points on 8-for-15 shooting.

Meanwhile, Maryland head coach Danny Manning drastically shook up the Terrapins lineup in their last game. He removed Fatts Russell, Hakim Hart, and Julian Reese from the starting lineup. Instead, He went with a starting five of Eric Ayala, Ian Martinez, Xavier Green, Donta Scott, and Qudus Wahab. Unfortunately, the "shakeup" did not help matters much, as Maryland endured a 19-point loss at Michigan, its worst loss of the season.

Maryland lost five of its last six games, while Illinois could have beaten a top-four Purdue team had center Kofi Cockburn not fouled out in overtime. Thus, we are entirely fading Maryland until Manning proves he gets things turned around, and expect one of the best teams in the Big Ten to come into the Terrapins' house and win convincingly. - Spector

Fresno State +1.5 (-110)

Taking the road team in college basketball is something I’m comfortable doing only in particular circumstances. The circumstances in store for this Mountain West clash between Fresno State (13-4, 3-1) and Nevada (8-7, 2-2) are ripe for the picking.

Fresno State is the much better team according to KenPom, landing at No. 56 in the rankings compared to 107 for Nevada. The metrics love Fresno State's defense, ranking the Bulldogs with the 32nd-best adjusted defensive efficiency in Division I. This feels like a game Fresno wins outright, but getting a meager 1.5 points to ride with the Bulldogs is a nice little incentive considering the work they’ve done against the spread this season.

Fresno State is 12-4 ATS on the year, which is a top 15 rate in all of college basketball this season. At 4-10 ATS, Nevada is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. The Wolfpack are a lowly 1-6 ATS as home favorites, making this a great opportunity to bet with the trends. - Schaeffer

Top College Basketball Expert O/U Picks

Michigan State-Wisconsin Under 139.5 (-105)

Wisconsin has been a machine to the over this season, with a 12-4 record against the number. The Badgers have actually hit seven consecutive overs. However, I think that changes against a team that can match up well on defense and on the boards.

The Badgers do not bring strong offensive metrics, shooting a modest 31% from 3-point range and 49% from inside the arc. Wisconsin also fails to force turnovers, ranking 244th in defensive turnover efficiency per KenPom. The Badgers win their games as a result of solid fundamentals, limited offensive turnovers, and capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes.

However, the Spartans bring a metrically superior defense and elite 3-point shooting, similar in style to the Houston Cougars. Wisconsin faced Houston in Las Vegas earlier in the season and came away with a 65-63 win. However, the Badgers shot an incredible 70% from the field in the first half of that game, gaining a 40-20 lead. Wisconsin barely held off a massive rally for the win, and this is the exact type of matchup that will cause problems for the Badgers.

Both teams play at a decent, but not fast pace. I project a strong defensive effort at the Kohl Center between two top defensive teams. - Randle

Saint Bonaventure-Duquesne Under 136.5 (-105)

Saint Bonaventure is coming off its second-worst loss and its second-lowest scoring output of the season against Dayton on Tuesday. The Bonnies were held to just four points over the final 10 minutes of the first half and never recovered from the scoring drought.

This is just St. Bonaventure's third road game all season. It is one of the country's oldest and most experienced teams, so we would not expect the Bonnies to continue to be rattled by road environments. However, we do expect them to rebound from Tuesday's poor performance with a more spirited effort defensively.

Head coach Mark Schmidt's complex matchup zone and man-to-man hybrid defense has given Duquesne fits recently, as the Dukes have averaged just 56 points per game in their last three meetings. Duquesne ranks 261st in effective field goal percentage and plays at one of the country's slowest tempos (260th), so it is not exactly like the Dukes have been lighting up the scoreboard this year. Look for the Bonnies' smothering defense to be the main reason this game stays under the projected total. - Spector

Michigan State-Wisconsin Under 139.5 (-105)

When two Big 10 basketball teams are strong both offensively and defensively, what tends to happen? It sure feels like in this conference, the defense narrative tends to win out with a closely contested, hard-fought battle. I think that’s what we get on Friday when No. 8 Wisconsin (15-2, 6-1) hosts No. 14 Michigan State (14-3, 5-1).

I don’t have a lean toward a given side for this game, as it should be highly competitive with the two squads landing back-to-back in the KenPom rankings at No. 23 and 24, with the Spartans actually getting more love from KenPom by one spot. The teams have identical overall adjusted efficiency ratings, with both defensive metrics falling inside the top 40. I like both defenses to force the opposition near the norm for its defensive scoring averages of 65.6 and 65.8 respectively, for the Spartans and Badgers.

That points toward a lower-scoring game that lands in the mid-130s on the total. The total of 139.5 at DraftKings is slightly higher than the 139 you’ll find elsewhere, so I like the Under at the -105 odds for our college basketball expert picks. - Schaeffer

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