Duo Of High-Value O/U NCAA Basketball Picks For Saturday Evening

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, March 5, 2016 6:09 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 5, 2016 6:09 PM UTC

Our NCAAB handicapper spots two totals that are posted a little too low this Saturday. Read on as he explains his NCAAB Picks!

Louisville vs. Virginia (Over 123.5)
In what is sure to be a defensive battle between two of the top teams in the nation, the 11th ranked Louisville Cardinals (23-7, 12-5) travel to take on the 4ht ranked Virginia Cavaliers (23-6, 12-5) in this highly anticipated ACC matchup that can be seen on ESPN. This is the second meeting between these teams this year, with Louisville seeking revenge for a 63-47 home loss upset as a 5-point favorite. That game went well under the consensus total of 129 in late January. In this game Virginia is favored at home by six points at Pinnacle, while the O/U total has opened up at 125.5 at BookMaker.

Virginia currently plays at a terribly slow pace, which is why they average only 72.7 points at home on a very efficient 49.3% shooting. They average 53 attempts for that average, while only allowing 51 attempts to opponents on their home floor. However, their opponents only shoot a 41.1% FG average and average 58.8 points on those attempts. It’s one of the reasons that the under is 4-1 in Virginia’s last five games and 11-6 overall in conference play.

Louisville also plays at a slow pace, but averages 75.8 points per game on 47.5% shooting over 60 attempts. They allow opponents only 50 attempts on the road, lower even than Virginia. That is a reason for Louisville’s 11-6 overall record in unders in conference play this season.

I wouldn’t have touched this game if I hadn’t seen the betting line movement, which has moved the number all the way down to 123.5 at Heritage. For a game in which the statistics tell us that one of the teams will score in the 70’s, that is just too low. It is also an indicator that most of the public is pounding the under. I’ll gladly take the other side here, while making Over 123.5 one of my Saturday NCAAB Picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 124
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle


Boise State vs. San Jose State (Over 144)
In last place in the Mountain West the San Jose State Spartans (8-21, 3-14) are hoping for a good end to their season, but probably won’t find it as one of the conference leaders comes to town in the Boise State Broncos (20-10, 11-6). These two teams met in late January in Boise with the Broncos stomping the Spartans, 94-69. That let Boise State cover a steep 18.5-point line and took the game over the consensus total of 148.5. For this game, the Broncos are a 10-point favorite while the O/U has been posted at 144 at 5Dimes

San Jose State comes into this game losers of 6-straight, while the over has cashed in three straight as well. Six of their 8 wins have come at home, where the Spartans average 73.2 points per game and allow an average of 69.3. This is the only situation where they have a positive scoring differential. Overall in all games, the Spartans allow 3.1 points more than they score, which is going to get you an 8-21 record pretty quick.

Boise State comes into this game winners of three straight games and 5 straight against the NCAA basketball odds boards. They had a nice 7-3 over trend going before the last three games went under the total. Those games were against the top of the conference though, so I’m expecting Boise State to feast on the lower competition and get the over train going again. The Broncos should find the same success they had against the Spartans in January, which is why I’m taking over 144 at 5Dimes as one of my Saturday NCAA basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Over 144
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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