Duke's Rebounding Edge Will Be Too Much for Indiana

duke basketball

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, November 29, 2017 12:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017 12:55 PM UTC

NCAAB handicapper Mark Lathrop is on a blistering 9-1 ATS start with his writeups exclusive to SBR. Read on as he breaks down a marquee matchup on national television Wednesday that could easily get out of hand for the home team.

2017-18 NCAAB Record: 9-1 (+7.95 Units)

Free NCAAB Pick: Duke -10Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Duke Blue Devils at Indiana Hoosiers

The No. 1 Duke Blue Devils get their first true road game of the year after 4 of their first 8 games coming on neutral courts. They’ll travel to Bloomington to match up with the Indiana Hoosiers in a nationally televised ACC-Big Ten Challenge game on ESPN. The television executives were likely hoping for a more competitive matchup than they are going to get here, as the Blue Devils can be found as 10-point favorites across the board after opening at -9.5. Duke has seen some early tests, yet the Hoosiers are just 4-2 SU after losses to Seton Hall and Indiana State. This will be Indiana’s first game against a power basketball conference this year.

The Hoosiers will be especially tested because of the lack in size from the players getting the most minutes far. Of the top 5 players in minutes logged, the tallest Indiana player is just 6-foot-7 forward Juwan Morgan. Sixth on the minutes logged list is 6’10” De’Ron Davis, who averages 11.3 points over 21 minutes but also finds himself in foul trouble more often than not. Nobody else on the roster over 6’7” has logged any minutes for the Hoosiers.

As such, Indiana has a terrible time in rebounding and is ranked just 231st in the country overall in that statistic. This was evident in the Hoosiers' first game of the season when they got outrebounded by Indiana State in a 90-69 loss where the Sycamores couldn’t miss a shot. They also can get in really bad mismatches on the floor, such as they did with 6’6” swingman from Seton Hall, Desi Rodriguez, who put up 23 on Indiana in their 84-68 drubbing of the Hoosiers on the road.

Enter the Blue Devils, who will have a 5 inch or more height advantage most of the time with 3-4 of the players on the floor at all times. Duke is 4th in the country in total rebounding per game – over 10 more than Indiana – for just that reason. The length should also cause turnovers for Indiana as well and additional possessions for Duke. I’m fully expecting that the Blue Devils will have 15 more attempts than the Hoosiers as a result, and with their 49.2% field-goal average they should be 14-point favorites or more here.

But because of the name of Indiana and Duke being on the road, the Devils are only listed as 10-point road chalk. That is where the value lies here, and I will be taking the Blue Devils for very logical reasons as my Wednesday NCAAB pick.

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