Don't Follow The Trend! Go 'Under' With Your NCAA Basketball Picks On TCU vs. Baylor

Willie Bee

Wednesday, January 13, 2016 11:34 AM GMT

Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2016 11:34 AM GMT

Looking to keep pace in the Big 12 standings, the Baylor Bears are home favorites on the NCAA basketball odds Wednesday when they host the TCU Horned Frogs.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Under 142½
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

We know how strong the Big 12 is at the very top of the conference. Kansas and Oklahoma have been sitting 1-2 in the college basketball polls for a couple of weeks now, and we can't help but look ahead about a month to their second meeting of the season after the thrilling triple overtime performance the Jayhawks and Sooners gave us last week.

Three more schools are ranked in the top 25 to give the Big 12 depth, but the Baylor Bears would like to prove they're a threat to Kansas and Oklahoma at the top of the league ranks. The Bears didn't really show that nearly two weeks ago in a sound defeat on the road to the Jayhawks, but they bounced back this past weekend with an upset at Iowa State, and Baylor should have an easy time keeping pace with KU and OU on Wednesday when the TCU Horned Frogs come to Waco.

Tip-off at Ferrell Center is slated for 8:15 PM (ET) with ESPNews carrying the game nationally. 5Dimes has the Bears at -12½, those NCAA basketball odds down a bucket from the opener, and the morning total is 142½.

 

Bears Unbeaten In Series As Big 12 Opponents
This series dates all the way back to 1908 and TCU's very first trip to the collegiate hardwood. That one also took place in Waco with Baylor winning by a 37-6 count, and the Bears have managed to maintain the advantage in the series ever since bringing in a 96-81 record in the 177 matchups.

The I-35 rivalry took time off after the old Southwest Conference broke up in the 90s but was renewed when the Frogs hooked back up with the Big 12 a few years ago. All seven contests since have gone to the Bears, their backers beating the NCAA basketball odds in five of them.

Baylor swept on the floor and at the window last season, winning the clash at Ferrell Center by 20 points, 77-57. Five Bears scored in double figures, led by Rico Gathers' 14 to go with 17 rebounds. The contest made it past a 124 point total, the 6th-straight 'over' winner between the schools.

 

Frogs & Bears Both Coming Off Upset Dubyas
The season got off to a bad start for Trent Johnson and Texas Christian (9-6 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) when Kenrich Williams was lost for the year with a knee injury. The junior wingman was third on the club last season in scoring and led the squad with 6.7 boards per game.

The Horned Frogs played a pretty weak non-conference schedule, perhaps their best game a 75-70 loss to unbeaten SMU as 6½ point underdogs. The conference portion of the slate started with two losses at Oklahoma State and to No. 11/10 West Virginia, though TCU did bounce back with a mild upset this past weekend in Ft. Worth against Texas. The 58-57 triumph came as 3 point 'dogs and marked the first time since 1995 the Frogs had topped the Longhorns.

As mentioned, Baylor (12-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) played very poorly at Kansas, coming out flat and looking nothing like a March Madness dancer in the 102-74 loss to the Jayhawks. Scott Drew's crew quickly put that performance behind them with two solid wins, the first at home against Oklahoma State before Saturday's 94-89 upset at Iowa State as 6½ point road 'dogs.

The Bears trailed by 10 four minutes into the second half against the Cyclones, then slowly chipped away to eventually take the lead for good with 4:19 remaining on Johnathan Motley's tip-in. Motley was one of three Baylor players with double-doubles, chipping in a game-high 27 points plus 13 rebounds. Taurean Prince added 18 and 10 while Lester Medford scored 16 while dishing 11 assists. The strange thing is that it's Gathers who is averaging a double-double on the season (13.5 ppg, 10.9 rpg)

The series trend suggests playing the 'over,' but my free NCAA basketball pick is going the other direction.

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