Dog Value: Two Blockbuster NCAA Basketball Picks For Wednesday

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, January 27, 2016 4:31 PM GMT

Our college basketball expert Ross Benjamin has gone 5-2-1 ATS the last three betting days with his underdog NCAA basketball picks. Go inside for Wednesday’s two best plays.

Louisville vs. Virginia Tech 8:00 PM ET
Louisville has gone 2-3 in true road games this season, and has failed to cover in each of its last four away tilts. The Cardinals are clearly the better team in this matchup, and current NCAA basketball odds boards on tonight’s contest certainly indicates that. However, I’m not looking at picking a straight up winner in this game, and my focus is solely on beating the number. This is a potential danger spot for Louisville. The Cardinals are a sizable road favorite against an opponent that’s been solid in recent games. After tonight, Louisville will face #11 Virginia and #2 North Carolina in its next two games. This is appears to be the proverbial looking ahead spot for the Cardinals in Blacksburg on Wednesday night.

Virginia Tech is far from a Top 25 team, but they’ve gone a very respectable 4-3 in ACC play thus far. As a matter of fact, they’ve covered six of seven conferences games, and that includes each of its last four. The Hokies will have their hands full against the pressure defense that Louisville likes to apply. Although Louisville can create a plethora of turnovers with that style of defensive play, they’re also prone to committing an inordinate amount of personal fouls. During their last five contests, Louisville opponents have averaged 28 free throw attempts per game. Contrarily, Virginia Tech is averaging 30 free throw attempts per outing during its previous five contests, and connected on a stellar 75% of those tries. Certain projections such as volume of free throws attempted, often times gets overlooked when handicapping a game. I’m predicting that particular facet of tonight’s contest will provide the home team with a much needed edge, and especially so when considering them being an underdog of this magnitude.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Virginia Tech +10
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Boise State vs. UNLV 11:00 PM ET
Boise State began the season by going a less than impressive 3-4 in its first seven games. It must be noted, those losses included one to #12 Michigan State who was top ranked at that time, and two defeats came at the hands of #18 Arizona. Since then, the Broncos have gone 12-1 in their last thirteen contests. Boise is 3-0 SU&ATS in conference road games this season, and their average margin of victory was 10.7 points per contest.

This has been a tumultuous season thus far for the UNLV basketball program. Following an upset loss at Wyoming, their head coach at that time Dave Rice was relieved of his duties. UNLV responded well in the face of adversity by winning their next three games. That all came to a screeching halt after suffering a road loss to Nevada as a 5.5 point favorite in their previous game.

I’m going with the team and program that’s on more stable ground right now for one of my NCAA basketball picks.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Boise St. +3.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes