Breaking Down NCAA Tournament Coaching ATS Trends

ncaa tournament coaches

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, March 15, 2017 6:19 PM GMT

Wednesday, Mar. 15, 2017 6:19 PM GMT

Obviously, each coach in the NCAA Tournament wants to win every game and cut down the nets. Most, if not all, coaches could care less about the spread and that’s reflected in some of their ATS records in the Big Dance since 2005.

The favorites to win the NCAA Tournament on BetOnline basketball odds are South Region No. 1 North Carolina (+500), West No. 1 Gonzaga (+650), East No. 1 Villanova (+750), East No. 2 Duke (+750), Midwest No. 1 Kansas (+900) and West No. 2 Arizona (+950).

History has shown that a top-three seed is going to win it all as only four times since 1985 has a seed lower than a three cut down the nets: No. 7 Connecticut in 2014, No. 4 Arizona in 1997, No. 6 Kansas in 1988 and No. 8 Villanova in 1985. The Huskies, Wildcats and Jayhawks had something in common: a star player carrying the load. It was Shabazz Napier for UConn, Miles Simon for Arizona and Danny Manning (the current coach of Wake Forest) for Kansas. Villanova simply pulled off one of the biggest upsets in tournament history in the championship game by knocking off Patrick Ewing’s Georgetown Hoyas.

Those tournament favorites listed above have some of the best coaches in college basketball, in some cases ever. That doesn’t mean you should always be backing their teams in the Big Dance. Mike Kryzyewski’s Duke teams are 90-27 straight up in his career. That's great. However, Coach K’s teams since 2005 are 4-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and 16-16 ATS overall.  

Coach K's Tobacco Road rival and fellow Hall of Famer, North Carolina's Roy Williams, is 70-24 SU in his tourney career dating to his Kansas days.  His teams are just 4-6 ATS in the first round since '05. Michigan State's Tom Izzo, another Hall of Famer, has seen his Spartans cover just five of their past nine spreads in the Round of 64. John Calipari's teams are 4-6 ATS in that round the past 12 years. Meanwhile, steer clear of Notre Dame's Mike Brey as his teams are just 5-11 ATS overall in the past 11 years. 

If you want to make your Final Four NCAA picks based on ATS records, well, there's really no great value in the East Region. In the West, Gonzaga's Mark Few gets the edge over Arizona's Sean Miller (only 8-8 ATS since leaving Xavier). In the Midwest, the ATS champion is Michigan's John Beilein,  and in the South it's Butler's Chris Holtmann, albeit on a small sample size.

Record In NCAA Tournament (ATS Since 2005)

COACH
CURRENT SCHOOL
RD OF 64 (ATS)
ALL RDS (ATS)
CAREER (SU)
Sean Miller
Arizona
4-4
16-9
17-9
Mike Anderson
Arkansas
2-3
4-6
8-7
Scott Drew
Baylor
2-4
6-8
8-6
Nathan Davis
Bucknell
0-0
0-0
0-0
Chris Holtmann
Butler
2-0
4-0
2-2
Mick Cronin
Cincinnati
3-3
4-5
4-8
Greg McDermott
Creighton
2-2
2-5
3-6
Archie Miller
Dayton
2-1
5-3
5-3
Mike Krzyzewski
Duke
4-7
16-16
90-27
Steve Forbes
E. Tennessee State
0-0
0-0
0-0
Mike White
Florida
0-0
0-0
0-0
Joe Dooley
Florida Gulf Coast
1-0
2-0
1-1
L. Hamilton                                  
Florida State
1-3
2-5
6-7
Mark Few
Gonzaga
5-6
11-4
21-17
Tim Cluess
Iona
0-2
0-3
0-3
Steve Prohm
Iowa State
2-0
3-2
3-2
Ray Harper
Jacksonville State
2-0
2-1
1-2
Bill Self
Kansas
6-5
19-18
40-17
Bruce Weber
Kansas State
3-3
3-5
11-10
Rob Senderoff
Kent State
0-0
0-0
0-0
John Calipari
Kentucky
4-6
25-19
48-16
Rick Pitino
Louisville
4-5
17-13
53-18
S. Wojciechowski                         
Marquette
0-0
0-0
0-0
Mark Turgeon
Maryland
4-3
7-8
8-7
Jim Larranaga
Miami (Fla.)
3-2
7-7
9-7
John Beilein
Michigan
5-2
14-5
17-10
Tom Izzo
Michigan State
5-4
17-15
46-18
Kermit Davis
Middle Tennessee
1-0
1-2
1-4
Richard Pitino
Minnesota
0-0
0-0
0-0
Jamion Christian
Mount St. Mary's
0-1
0-1
0-1
Eric Musselman
Nevada
0-0
0-0
0-0
Paul Weir
New Mexico State
0-0
0-0
0-0
Mark Slessinger
New Orleans
0-0
0-0
0-0
Roy Williams
North Carolina
4-6
21-16
70-24
LeVelle Moton
UNC Central
0-1
0-1
0-1
Brian Jones
North Dakota
0-0
0-0
0-0
John Brannen
Northern Kentucky
0-0
0-0
0-0
Chris Collins
Northwestern
0-0
0-0
0-0
Mike Brey
Notre Dame
2-6
5-11
12-13
Brad Underwood
Oklahoma State
2-1
3-2
2-3
Dana Altman
Oregon
4-1
8-4
9-12
Mitch Henderson
Princeton
0-0
0-0
0-0
Ed Cooley
Providence
1-2
1-3
1-3
Matt Painter
Purdue
6-2
10-6
8-9
Dan Hurley
Rhode Island
0-0
0-0
0-0
Randy Bennett
Saint Mary's
1-3
3-4
3-5
Kevin Willard
Seton Hall
0-1
0-1
0-1
Tim Jankovich
SMU
0-0
0-0
0-0
Frank Martin
South Carolina
4-0
5-4
6-4
T.J. Otzelberger
South Dakota State
0-0
0-0
0-0
Mike Davis
Texas Southern
2-0
2-3
7-7
Phil Cunningham
Troy
0-0
0-0
0-0
Jim Les
UC-Davis
1-0
2-1
2-1
Steve Alford
UCLA
3-3
5-7
9-9
Kevin Keatts
UNC Wilmington
1-0
1-0
0-1
Andy Enfield
USC
2-0
4-0
2-2
Bryce Drew
Vanderbilt
1-1
1-1
0-2
Will Wade
VCU
1-0
2-0
1-1
John Becker
Vermont
0-1
1-1
1-1
Jay Wright
Villanova
4-6
13-14
20-12
Tony Bennett
Virginia
3-3
7-8
9-6
Buzz Williams
Virginia Tech
2-3
5-7-1
8-5
Danny Manning
Wake Forest
0-1
0-1
0-1
Bob Huggins
West Virginia
4-3
9-7
29-22
Gregg Marshall
Wichita State
5-2
11-6
10-12
Pat Kelsey
Winthrop
0-0
0-0
0-0
Greg Gard
Wisconsin
1-0
2-1
2-1
Chris Mack
Xavier
4-1
9-3
7-6

 

comment here