Dangerous Dog to Upset NCAA Basketball Odds: Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State

Darin Zank

Saturday, January 31, 2015 5:02 PM GMT

Oklahoma owns the recent rivalry with Oklahoma State, winning five of the last six meetings straight-up, covering the spread in eight of the last nine. Tonight the Sooners are underdogs in the betting odds. 

Sooners-Cowboys Betting Odds
Most books we checked with opened this game with Oklahoma State favored by 1.5 points in NCAA Basketball odds, with a total of 131.5. Many books then bumped the Cowboys to -2 and -2.5 in the early betting.

 

Sooners-Cowboys: Background
Oklahoma returned four starters this season from a team that won 23 games before getting upset by North Dakota State in the first round of the NCAA tournament last March. So we figured the Sooners for another upper-division finish in the Big 12.

Oklahoma started 9-3 through non-conference season, and won its first two Big 12 games, beating Baylor and Texas. But the Sooners then lost two straight, in overtime to Kansas State and in a blowout at West Virginia. OU then beat Oklahoma State 82-65, but lost at Kansas and at Baylor. Last time out, though, Wednesday night, the Sooners destroyed Texas Tech 81-36, easily covering as 16-point favorites.

Oklahoma led the Raiders by 10 points late in the first half Wednesday night, then went on a 31-1 run. Late in the game the Sooners led by 49.

For the game Oklahoma shot 53 percent from the field, and harassed Tech into a 21-percent shooting performance.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State returned just one starter this season from a team that won 21 games before also losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament last season. So we thought the Cowboys might have a tough time just finishing in the middle of the Big 12 this season, with less than a 50 percent chance of a return to the Big Dance.

OSU started 10-2 this season, then won two of its first three Big 12 games, beating Kansas State and Texas. The Cowboys then lost at Kansas and at Oklahoma, then beat Texas Tech 63-43. State then followed that up with a 63-53 loss at Kansas State, but bounced back last time out, Tuesday night, to beat Baylor 63-54.

The Cowboys led the Bears by nine at the half, and never let them get closer than seven points from there. Oklahoma State only shot 44 percent, but made nine of 18 shots from beyond the arc, and held Baylor to 35 percent shooting, all in covering as a four-point favorite.

Actually, we've missed on the Cowboys their last two games; we bet on them against Kansas State, and faded them against Baylor. Frustrating.

Oklahoma took the first meeting between these teams this season two weeks ago in Norman 82-65. The Sooners jumped out to an 11-2 lead and never let OSU back in the game. Oklahoma shot a hot 56 percent from the floor, held the Cowboys to just 37 percent shooting and easily covered the spread as a seven-point favorite.

That game played way OVER its total of 133 as the teams combined to score 86 points in a non-competitive second half.

Last season the Sooners swept two games from State by scores of 88-76 and 77-74.

Big-picture, the Sooners and Cowboys, both at 4-4, are tied for fifth place in the Big 12, 2.5 games behind conference-leading Kansas.

 

Sooners-Cowboys Key Stats
Oklahoma is shooting just 44 percent from the floor this season, but holding opponents to just 37 percent shooting.

Oklahoma State is also shooting just 44 percent from the floor, while holding foes to 38 percent shooting.

 

Sooners-Cowboys Betting Trends
Keep in mind when placing your NCAA Basketball pick that Oklahoma has leaned UNDER by an 10-7 margin this season, as Sooners games have averaged 135 points.

Oklahoma State has trended UNDER by a 10-5 margin, as Cowboys games have averaged 128 points. OSU's last three games have totaled just 106, 116 and 117 points.

However, six of the last seven meetings in this series have played OVER the totals.

 

Sooners-Cowboys Free Pick
We picked a winner with Oklahoma in the meeting with OSU two weeks ago, and not a whole lot has changed since then. We like the Sooners again, and we'll take 'em to win.

Free College Basketball Pick: Oklahoma +120 on the moneyline at YouWager