Dangerous Dog in NCAA Basketball Odds: Miami +15.5 vs. Duke

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, January 13, 2015 4:44 PM GMT

Fourth year Miami HC Larrinaga brings his Miami Florida 'Canes to visit the Duke Blue Devils of Coach K.Miami stands 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS in ACC play, while Duke is 2-1 SU but 0-2 ATS in ACC action.

Miami Florida vs. Duke (-15) 9:00 ET ESPN2
Fourth year Miami HC Larrinaga brings his Miami Florida Hurricanes to visit the Duke Blue Devils of Coach K for a 9 pm ET tip, televised by ESPN2.  Miami stands 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS in ACC play, while Duke is 2-1 SU but 0-2 ATS in ACC action.  Let’s go inside the thinking, as we analyze each team NCAA Basketball odds and their opportunity for pointspread success.

Miami, Fla, veteran HC Larrinaga (yes, the same one who took George Mason to the Final Four in the early part of this millennium) is a wily coach who knows how to coach a team on a big stage.  Consider that in his team’s only 2 road games Miami was victorious at Charlotte and upended last year’s Final Four team, Florida (69-67), as a 9 point road dog.   The Hurricanes have also been good enough to defeat a quality Illinois team (with Rice) and in the opening game of ACC action extend undefeated Virginia to OT in an eventual (89-80) home loss.  The Hurricanes are a near Defensive Dandy allowing just 61 PPG, 40% from the field and 33% from the arc.  Miami offers a positive rebound margin, has more assists than TOs and a positive TO margin.  In short, this is a fundamentally sound team who is well coached and will not be in awe of the big stage.  Though Miami has only 2 RS from last season, they are buoyed by Texas transfer, McClellan and former Kansas St. guard, Rodriguez, who average a combined 30 PPG. 

Duke suffered their first defeat of the season – after a 14-0 SU start at the hands of rival NC State on Sunday by a count of 87-75 in Raleigh.  Just as in all collegiate sports, Duke will be vulnerable to undefeated letdown after their hot start.  When a big named team, like Duke, bolts out of the gate with a 5-0 SU ATS start in which they covered the number by 62 combined points, they immediately become overrated.  Thus, it is no surprise that the line has caught up with the Blue Devils since late November, when they have gone 2-7 ATS.  I am well aware of the Duke dominance at Cameron Indoor Stadium under 35th year HC Krzyzewski.  In fact, since 1990, the Blue Devils are 112-70 ATS, laying 12 or more points on this court.  But, this is a unique time for the Duke team.  Not only are they facing the fact they are overpriced and suffering unbeaten letdown, but they are also suffering from the media hype surrounding the fact that in 3 more victories Coach K will reach the 1,000 win mark. 

The combination of the above negative factors for Duke, along with the fact they are facing a quality Miami team will make it very difficult for Duke to cover this impost. I suggest bettors to add Miami to their college basketball picks for this matchup.

Free College Basketball Pick: Take Miami Florida

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