Creative Betting Approaches to Detroit vs Wright State Matchup

Rainman M.

Friday, January 26, 2018 2:46 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 26, 2018 2:46 PM UTC

Detroit (6-15) has lost 13 of its last 15 SU and travels to Horizon League first-place Wright State (15-6) at 7 ET Friday. The Raiders are favored by 12.5 points with a total of 150.5.

Detroit Titans at Wright State RaidersFree NCAAB Pick: 'Under' 150.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Detroit and Wright State are like fire and water. The Titans don't play defense, ranking 331st in KenPom's defensive efficiency. But the Raiders do, ranking 33rd in the category. The Raiders prefer a slow pace, whereas the Titans like to push the tempo.

Offensively, the Titans have the 100th-highest proportion of three-point attempts to field-goal attempts, although they lack consistent shooters. Center Kameron Chatman leads the team with 43.8% completion from three. Everybody else shoots less than 39% from three. Chatman is also one of four Titans who completes over 80% from the free-throw line, although the Titans rank 209th in free-throw attempt percentage. The former Michigan Wolverine, who is best known for the below video, leads the team with 17.9 points and 8.9 rebounds per game.

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Whereas Detroit's defense is bottom ranked in several categories, the opposite is true for Wright State. But the Raiders lack a player with the scoring potential of the versatile Chatman. Small forward Grant Benzinger leads the team with 14.6 points per game, but his field-goal percentage is 38.7, meaning that he requires a lot of bricks until he scores enough points. The other active Raider who averages double figures is center Loudon Love, who also ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. He leads the team with 9.1 rebounds per game.

The Verdict

Wright State is in a prime spot to win SU. The Raiders are 9-1 SU at home and 8-1 SU in their last 9 games vs Detroit, 5-0 SU in their last 5 at home in the series. Detroit is 1-13 SU as an underdog. After a rough start to the season, the Raiders have established themselves as a consistent bounce-back team. Since that rough start, after both times in which they suffered a SU loss they came back and won, at least doubling the spread. They return home after a road loss in which they shot terribly. So expect them to win.

As for the point total, the 'over/under' is an astonishing 0-8 at home for Wright State. Teams are generally able to establish their preferred pace of play at home and when they are the better team. So expect the Raiders to slow down the Titans. Tonight is the kind of game that tends to produce an 'under' for Detroit because the Titans are an underdog and are playing a good defense (ranked in the top half in KenPom's defensive efficiency) that likes a slow tempo (ranked in the bottom half of KenPom's adjusted tempo). In all 8 of Detroit's 'unders,' the criteria of Detroit being an underdog and playing a slow-tempo team were met. In 7 of them, Detroit also faced a respectable defense. Tonight, all three criteria are in play.

One trend suggests that Detroit may cover tonight: They have covered four straight games when underdogs of 9 or more points. It could be tough for Wright State to cover such a spread with so few offensive weapons. So my plan is to take the 'under' and parlay it with Wright State ML for some extra cash. If you like teasers, it makes a lot of sense to tease Detroit up with the 'under.' If you like some Friday night craziness, you can parlay the 'under' with Detroit ATS.

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