Conference Tournament Picks: Season Double Revenge Underdogs

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, March 12, 2016 3:38 PM GMT

Our analyst shares his top two underdog plays on Saturday’s card. He’s been a stellar 19-9 (68%) with his NCAA basketball underdog picks over the past thirteen betting days.

Seton Hall vs. Villanova 4:30 PM ET
This just in, #3 ranked Villanova is an excellent team. Now let’s get to the essentials of this article, and that’s breaking down point spread wagering. Current (9:30 AM ET) college basketball betting odds at BetOnline.com has Villanova as a 7.0 point favorite in the Big East Conference Tournament Final. These teams met twice during the regular season and Villanova won on both occasions. However, Seton Hall covered each of those contests during a 9 and 1 point loss.

Seton Hall is peaking at the right time. The Pirates are 11-2 in their last thirteen games, and both losses came at the hands of Butler. If you’re looking for an underdog today that’s been a huge money maker this season, then Seton Hall unequivocally falls into that category. The Pirates are 13-3 ATS (81.3%) in their last sixteen games and 21-7 ATS (75%) during its previous twenty-eight contests.

The sportsbooks have recently made a concerted effort to protect themselves in games involving Villanova. As a result, their point spreads have been a bit inflated over the past three weeks. Despite their brilliant 29-4 record this season, you can make a case for Villanova being a tad overvalued at times during late February and into March. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone a dismal 2-6 ATS in their last eight Big East Conference games.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Seton Hall +6.5
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

 

Buffalo vs. Akron 7:30 PM ET
If you evaluate each of these teams whole body of work, Akron has a shinier resume, and are much more worth of landing in the NCAA Tournament. However, bodies of work and resumes don’t always prevail at this time of year, and results can on occasion be extremely cruel to the better team on paper.

Buffalo has been outstanding during their first two games of the MAC Tournament in Cleveland. They defeated both Miami-Ohio and Ohio University in a relatively convincing manner, winning by 13 and 14 points. The Bulls shot 49.1% from the floor, converted on a superb 48.1% of its three point attempts, and held a huge 86-67 rebounding advantage during those two contests. They lost both regular season encounters with Akron by 4 and 10 point respectively. However, in their last meeting which was played at Akron, Buffalo held a wide 40-25 rebounding edge.

Akron narrowly escaped in a 63-61 win over Eastern Michigan during their quarterfinal game. They did bounce back with a strong effort last night against the Bowling Green Falcons. That win does come with a bit of an asterisk, since that Falcons team entered MAC tourney action having lost ten of their final eleven regular season games, and were playing their third game in three days. I mentioned the stellar rebounding statistics of Buffalo in the prior paragraph. Contrarily, Akron has been the polar opposite during their two games in Cleveland. Their opponents have held a combined 76-60 rebounding advantage in those contests.

I’m going to side with the underdog in this MAC Tournament Final for one of my Saturday college basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Buffalo +4.0 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at The Greek