Colorado Buffaloes are the Late Night NCAA Basketball Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, February 18, 2015 3:24 PM GMT

Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2015 3:24 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Wednesday.

 



It may be worth staying up late Wednesday night as the underdogs can post a nice challenge now that they are finally at full strength when those Colorado Buffaloes (12-12, 1-7 away) pay a visit to the Oregon Ducks (18-8, 15-2 home) at Knight Arena in Eugene, OR at 11:00 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPNU.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Colorado as a road underdog for this contest with the current line at +6 with odds of -110.


Fourth Place in Pac-12
The Ducks are 18-8 overall, but their 8-5 record inside the Pac-12 is only good enough for fourth place in the conference and they do not exactly enter this contest with great momentum. In their last two games, the Ducks struggled before finally putting away a lousy USC team 80-75 and they then suffered what could turn out to be a crucial loss to UCLA 72-63 Saturday, as the Bruins are in a virtual third-place tie in the conference at 8-5 but now own the tiebreaker.

Colorado made the NCAA Tournament going 23-12 overall last season although the Buffaloes were the losing NCAA Basketball picks to the Pittsburgh Panthers in the second round, but they have already matched that loss total this season while only sitting at .500 at 12-12 and they are in the bottom half of the Pac-12 with just a 5-7 conference mark. To be fair the Buffaloes have been batting injuries and they do come off of a 64-58 home win over a good Stanford team Sunday.


Buffaloes Finally at Full Strength
In fact, guard Askia Booker, center Josh Scott and swingman Xavier Johnson account for about 63 percent of Colorado’s scoring production this season and the Buffaloes struggled while all three top scorers missed some time with various injuries lately. It was not until two games ago vs. California that the Buffs finally had all three players in the lineup at the same time for the first time in a long while.

Granted Colorado lost the return of the trio as an active unit to the very hot Golden Bears but the Buffaloes then downed a Stanford team currently ranked 35th on the Pomeroy Ratings with the trio accounting for nearly half of the team’s 64 points. Also the Colorado defense has been there all year ranking 58th in the country in defensive efficiency while allowing an effective field goal percentage of 47.0 percent, and that unit held the Cardinal to 33.3 percent shooting in the win.


NCAA Tournament Bid in Doubt
Oregon meanwhile may not be going to the NCAA Tournament, thus missing a chance to go to the Big Dance for three straight years for the first time in school history. Sure the Ducks have some nice wins this season but there is a feeling in many circles that the Pac-12 will only get three teams into the NCAA this season and Arizona and Utah are shoe-ins.

So it could very well be that Oregon and UCLA were involved in a play-in game at Pauley Pavilion Saturday, but the reality may be that the Ducks were the team that probably ill afforded the loss more as Oregon is ranked a pedestrian 74th on the Pomeroy Ratings while UCLA appears to be in better position for an at-large in 44th.

Furthermore, Colorado might be able to successfully slow the pace of this game, which is not what an Oregon team that is ranked 32nd in the country in average length of possession at 16.5 seconds wants. The problem for the Ducks is that they are a dismal 317th in defensive turnover percentage at 16.6 percent vs. a national average of 19.4 percent, so they do not seem equipped to quicken the Colorado pace up.


Ducks Not Covering Point Spreads at Home
Finally, the Ducks have seemingly been overvalued in their home games for a while as they are a disappointing 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Eugene.

With Colorado now healthy enough to beat the 35th ranked Pomeroy team last game and with 74th ranked Oregon having issues at home and perhaps wilting under the pressure of trying to make the NCAA Tournament again, our recommendation is to take the points with the Buffaloes in this late ESPNU telecast on Wednesday.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

NCAA Basketball Pick: Colorado +6 (-110)

comment here