College Hoops Best 'O/U' Plays For Saturday's Action

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, February 11, 2017 3:18 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 11, 2017 3:18 PM UTC

On a roll here with 9 of my last 10 picks ATS cashing tickets at the window in college basketball. I’m on weekend duty again, so here are my top totals picks from the huge Saturday card. All lines here are the early lines provided by SBR's Top Rated Sportsbooks.

2015-16 NCAAB Record: 28-17-2, +9.30 Units 

Gonzaga vs St. Mary’s

I’m going head to head with our great SBR Sports BIT segment with this pick, but I think Gonzaga has enough offensive fortitude to get this score past the number. It is true that St. Mary’s was able to suppress Gonzaga’s attempts in the first game this season, as the Bulldogs only put up 51 attempts versus their season average of 58. However, the Zags shot 64.7% from the floor in that game and still put up 79 points.

St. Mary’s put up more than their average of attempts in the first game, showing that Gonzaga was successful in increasing the tempo. I don’t expect that they will shoot a terrible 39.7% from their home floor though, and if they get into the mid-60’s this game goes over 133.

Free NCAAB Pick: Over 133Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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 Arkansas vs LSU

Two teams with some serious Over steam meet up on Saturday when the 17-7 Arkansas Razorbacks visit the hapless 9-14 LSU Tigers. LSU is just 1-10 in conference this year, with their totals record sitting at an incredible 10-1 favoring the Over in conference play. This total is higher than their game in January of 162, a total that was exceeded easily by the final 99-86 score favoring Arkansas.

However, in that game both teams shot well over 50% from the floor and well over their season averages. Arkansas only shoots 43.2% from the floor on the road, exactly 10% less than what they put up in the first head-to-head between these teams. LSU shoots a better 47.4% at home, but that is still short of the 51.6% they put up in the first game. The line has moved way up to 167, but these teams revert to the mean to get this game just under 167.

Free NCAAB Pick: Under 165Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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 Oregon vs USC

Pure numbers play for me here, as there are some signs that this game goes way over the initial listed total of 144.5 at BookMaker. USC only scored 61 points at Oregon when they met in December, a game played before they really started figuring things out on offense. USC has scored 82 points or more in their last five games and likely won’t shoot the 31% from the floor as they did against Oregon in January.

Oregon had two players score more than 20 points against USC in their last game played, as Dillon Brooks and Dylan Ennis lit it up from behind the arc. There really isn’t anything out of character in their 84-61 win against USC earlier in the year, so I’m comfortable backing them here for a repeat performance. Take the Over of 144.5 at Bookmaker as one of your Saturday college basketball picks.

Free NCAAB Pick: Over 144.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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