It’s a busy Sunday in college basketball, and we give you three of our top college basketball picks to help you make it a profitable one
Thanksgiving weekend concludes with many intriguing games. We have the culmination of the exciting ESPN Events Invitational, as well as a big matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Miami Hurricanes.
Here are my top picks for Sunday’s college basketball slate of action (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a one-to-five star scale).
Top College Basketball Picks
Belmont -3.5 vs. Dayton (-110) ★★★★
Wofford -1.5 vs. Georgia (-110) ★★★★
Alabama/Miami Over 153 (-110) ★★★
SEE ALSO: All College Basketball Odds
College Basketball Predictions
Belmont -3.5 (-110)
In a tournament that featured two top ten teams in Kansas and Alabama, we get a surprise championship matchup in the ESPN Events Invitational between Belmont and Dayton. Dayton is a tough team to figure out, as their chances to do well were left for dead entering this tournament after three straight losses to inferior opponents (UMass Lowell, Lipscomb, Austin Peay). However, they have responded with wins over Miami and Kansas. In the latter, they needed to overcome a ten-point halftime deficit. Belmont has won two grinders of games against Drake and Iona after a 30-point loss to LSU entering the tournament.
The key to this game will be if Dayton can neutralize Belmont big man Nick Muszynski. The Flyers did an outstanding job limiting Kansas’ David McCormack to five points on six shot attempts. Still, McCormack’s disappointing stat line was more about Kansas’ guards being flustered by Dayton’s pressure and McCormack not being assertive enough. Belmont’s guards are not easily rattled, as the team turns the ball over on just 16.3% of their possessions. Look for Muszynski to be heavily involved and find open shooters if and when he is doubled in the post.
Dayton was fortunate that Kansas shot just 9-for-20 from the free-throw line, but Belmont ranks 48th in the country in free-throw shooting. That will come in handy in a close game, and it’s why it is one of our top college basketball picks.
Wofford -1.5 (-110)
Tom Crean's Georgia Bulldogs have been unimpressive to start the season, losing four of their last five games. Georgia's struggles are primarily because of a lack of 3-point weapons (271st in the country) and a defense that does not disrupt opponents enough in the half-court. The Bulldogs force turnovers on just 17.0% of possessions.
Storm Murphy was a significant loss for Wofford, but the Terriers have more than enough talent on their roster, with four of their top six leading scorers shooting better than 40% from deep. The scary part for the 4-2 Terriers is that two of their best players, Morgan Safford and Messiah Jones, have not gotten going yet. Neither is averaging double figures so far this season.
Wofford should be very comfortable running their offense in the half-court. They will prove why they are one of the country's best mid-majors against a Georgia team that may be looking ahead to a showdown with highly-ranked Memphis in their next game.
Alabama/Miami Over 153 (-110)
Alabama rebounded from their upset loss to Iona with an 80-71 win over Drake. Alabama's loss to Iona was surprising to many considering they were 12-point favorites. Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino's team benefited from seeing Alabama's high-powered offense up close in person in last year's tournament and were well-prepared to negate the Crimson Tide's transition offense. Miami has struggled on the defensive end this year, especially in the ESPN Events Invitational, and that will be a big reason this game soars over the projected total.
Miami ranks 269th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense, per KenPom. They allowed Dayton to shoot 58.7% from the field, including 57.9% from 3-point range. They followed that up with a disappointing performance against North Texas, allowing 69 points to a team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Nevertheless, Miami will score offensively, with an experienced backcourt of Charlie Moore, Isaiah Wong, and Kameron McGusty.
The over has cashed in six of Miami's last seven neutral site games and is 7-0 in Alabama's last seven Sunday games. Yesterday's day off will do both of these offenses good.
Picks made on 11/27/2021 at 6:23 p.m. ET