College Basketball Picks - Bowling Green Falcons vs Cincinnati Bearcats

Jay Pryce

Sunday, December 4, 2016 5:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 4, 2016 5:00 PM UTC

Cincinnati hosts Bowling Green at Fifth Third Arena for a rare Sunday night (8 p.m. ET) tip-off. Need a NCAA basketball pick to spice up those plays? Look no further. Prediction with analysis this way.

Bowling Green Falcons (2-4 SU, 2-3 ATS)

Head coach Michael Huger and the Falcons tipped off 12.5-point underdogs in this matchup last year at the Stroh Center. They got walloped 83-50, just the third time in six seasons losing by 30 points or more. Huger’s squad was held to 29.3 percent shooting for the game, scoring 19 points in the second half. The score was 35-31 at halftime, however.

The Falcons are 6-17 SU and 6-16 ATS dating back to early January. They had an atrocious showing in the Mid-American Conference last season, winning and covering 5 games overall. They have strung together three wins in a row in 2016, dominating opponents on the boards. Bowling Green ranks 23rd in the country in total rebounds per game (42).

Defense is the major issue under Huger. Bowling Green allows 76.2 points per game on 45.2 percent shooting when the underdog since he took over.  Since 2015, this game marks just the third time it’s tipped off as a double-digit dog, and first spotted 20 points or more. All in all, the competition has been weak.

The media picked the Falcons to finish fifth out of six teams in the Mid-American East division in the preseason. Senior forward Wes Alcegaire leads the team with 12.6 points per game.


Cincinnati Bearcats (6-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)

Cincinnati upset No. 19 Iowa State 55-54 in a dramatic overtime victory on the road last game out as 6-point pups. It was another spectacular defensive performance out of head coach Mick Cronin’s men. The team’s 58.4 opponent points per game rank fifth nationally. The defense has held five of seven foes below their projected team total this season.

Sophomore guard Jacob Evans and junior forward Kyle Washington lead the team offensively. They are the only two players averaging double digits in scoring with 16.9 points and 16.3 points respectively. Preseason AAC Player of the Year recipient Troy Caupain is struggling to find his 3-point shot. The senior point guard is averaging only 9.1 points per game, shooting 23.3 percent from downtown.

Expect Cronin’s bench to see plenty of playing time. He sat them much of the contest in Ames, saying afterward the youngsters appeared nervous and that he needed the veterans to pull through.


Bowling Green Falcons vs Cincinnati Bearcats  

The UNDER is 8-2 when Cincy squares off against a Mid-American Conference behind Cronin. The team is yielding 54.0 points overall in this spot, holding seven of 10 opponents below their projected team total. The over-under of 129.5 offers little value in this spot, however.  The safer bet may be on the side with the Falcons projected to barely reach 50 points. When laying 20 points or more, the Bearcats are 6-3 ATS since 2005. The Falcons have had all week to prepare, but the talent gap is too wide. The Cincy bench will have to find its scoring touch to cover. Cincinnati -20 is the NCAA basketball pick here.


Free NCAAB Pick: Cincinnati -20Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3100258, "sportsbooksIds":[238,19,1275,123,227], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here