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College basketball best bets.
College basketball best bets.

The Providence Friars and Purdue Boilermakers look to avoid upsets as the only two ranked teams in action on Sunday. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Sunday based on the top NCAAB odds.

Saturday was not a good day to be a top-25 team, as eight ranked teams lost outright. Oklahoma secured its largest win against an AP top-five opponent with a 24-point beatdown of Alabama, and Xavier suffered its largest loss since 2011 as a ranked team vs. an unranked team with its 17-point loss at Creighton.

Here are our college basketball best bets for Sunday (odds via FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college basketball best bets.

Sunday’s college basketball schedule and odds

(odds via DraftKings)

  • Rutgers vs. Iowa (-4)
  • Providence (-1.5) vs. Villanova
  • Michigan vs. Penn State (-3.5)
  • Michigan State vs. Purdue (-7.5)

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

College basketball best bets for Sunday

  • Spread: Michigan State +8.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Purdue ⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Iowa (-164 via FanDuel) vs. Rutgers ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Quinnipiac-Iona Under 145.5 (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: East Carolina (+140 via Caesars) vs. Wichita State ⭐⭐

College basketball top picks

Spread: Michigan State +8.5 vs. Purdue (-110) ⭐⭐⭐

Purdue and Michigan State meet for the second time in 13 days after the two played a 64-63 classic in East Lansing. The Spartans played that game without Malik Hall, whose size and versatility were sorely missed.

Player of the Year front-runner Zach Edey went off for a season-high 32 points on 13-of-26 shooting in that game, even though the Spartans entered the contest ranked in the 93rd percentile in post-double rate, per Synergy. No one player can completely shut Edey down, but Hall’s return means the Spartans have more bodies to throw at him.

In addition, this is a three-star play as Michigan State was .12 points per possession with Hall on the court before his injury, and we expect the brilliant Tom Izzo to scheme ways to limit Edey further in this rematch.

The underdog is 5-1 against the spread in the previous six meetings between these teams, and we expect Michigan State to be competitive despite Purdue winning 15 consecutive day games at Mackey Arena. BetMGM is the only sportsbook offering +8.5 at the standard -110 juice.

Moneyline: Iowa ML vs. Rutgers (-164) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

When these two teams met at Jersey Mike’s Arena on Jan. 8, the Hawkeyes carved up the usually stingy Scarlet Knights defense. Iowa made 12-of-27 3-point attempts (44.4%) and scored a blistering 1.12 points per possession.

Rutgers does not have a consistent perimeter threat outside of Cam Spencer, as he is the only player on the roster making better than 36.7% of his 3-point attempts. That was a weakness that was exposed in the first matchup, as all other players besides Spencer combined to shoot 2-of-12 from beyond the arc.

This is a solid four-star play, as Iowa has covered five of six games and is 43-20-3 ATS in its last 66 home games.

Iowa is as high as -190 at PointsBet, so we are getting great value with this number at FanDuel.

Total: Quinnipiac-Iona Under 145.5 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rick Pitino had Baker Dunleavy’s number in this MAAC rivalry last year, winning both meetings by a combined 33 points and holding Quinnipiac to 61 points in each. The Bobcats rank second in league play in 3-point field goals attempted per field-goal attempt, but it does not help that they have connected on just 31.5% of those shots (seventh in the MAAC).

Meanwhile, Quinnipiac defends the 3-point line at a top-34 rate, and Iona has topped 75 points just once in the previous five games.

This is a four-star play, as the Gaels have the league’s best defense in effective field goal percentage, which should keep the scoring down.

All sportsbooks are in unison at 145.5, but DraftKings is the only one charging less in juice to back the Under.

Upset: East Carolina ML vs. Wichita State (+140) ⭐⭐

The Wichita State program is a long way from the success of the Gregg Marshall days. The Shockers have lost five of eight games, mainly because they have been outperformed in perimeter shooting. Wichita State ranks 338th in 3-point shooting but is the AAC’s worst team defending the arc in league play (36.1% allowed).

East Carolina has a path to an upset if it can dominate the offensive glass, as it ranks 30th in the country with a 34.3% offensive-rebounding percentage. In comparison, Wichita State allows offensive rebounds on 29.9% of misses (238th).

This line has swung wildly from an opening number of East Carolina -105, but we still have faith in the Pirates pulling off the home upset.

College basketball best bets made 1/29/2023 at 8:10 a.m. ET.

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