Non-conference action is heating up in college basketball as Thanksgiving draws near. We have highlighted the odds, movements, and our college basketball best bets for Monday.
One of the most anticipated early season tournaments gets underway Monday, as the Maui Jim Maui Invitational features five AP top-25 teams. However, the star power in Hawaii should not overshadow the plethora of other intriguing tournaments, including the Cayman Islands Classic, Paradise Jam, Sunshine Slam, and Hall of Fame Classic, among others.
Monday’s College Basketball Schedule and Odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Texas Tech (+150) vs. Creighton (-175)
- Louisville (+900) vs. Arkansas (-1500)
- Bellarmine vs. Duke (Off)
- Northern Arizona (+2000) vs. Texas (-8000)
- Ohio State (+150) vs. San Diego State (-175)
- Cincinnati (+340) vs. Arizona (-425)
Monday’s College Basketball Best Bets
- Moneyline: San Diego State (-175 via DraftKings) ★★★★
- Spread: Arkansas -15.5 (-110 via Caesars) ★★★★
- Total: Texas Tech-Creighton Under 133.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ★★★★
- Upset: Temple (+202 via FanDuel) ★★
- Prop Pick: Bellarmine team total Under (Off) ★★★★
Top College Basketball Picks for Monday
Moneyline: San Diego State (-175) ★★★★
San Diego State followed up a subpar defensive performance against BYU (allowed 75 points and 46% shooting) with a solid effort against Stanford, limiting the Cardinal to 62 points on 21-of-52 shooting. As a result, the Aztecs rank eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and are one of five teams in that top eight that also rank 36th or better in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Ohio State has faced three opponents ranked 289th or worse in KenPom's rankings and will likely go through an extensive adjustment period when facing a team of the caliber of San Diego State. Despite their lack of competition, the Buckeyes have forced turnovers on just 15.6% of opponents' possessions (309th in the country).
In contrast, the Aztecs' defense has been much more disruptive (26th-best turnover percentage) while playing much stiffer competition.
Spread: Arkansas -15.5 (-110) ★★★★
Is Louisville on track to be one of the worst Power Five teams in the country this season? On one hand, Kenny Payne's squad can walk out of its 0-3 start feeling it has something to build on after three consecutive one-point losses. On the other hand, three one-point losses to Bellarmine, Wright State, and Appalachian State are enough to demoralize a team early in the season, especially heading into a matchup with an SEC contender in Arkansas.
The Razorbacks have three players averaging more than 12 points per game and have won all three games by 15-plus points despite shooting 27.1% from 3-point range. Arkansas has hung its hat on a rock-solid defense that ranks in the top nine in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage defense, and turnover percentage forced. It will take advantage of a Cardinals squad that is devoid of any true leadership.
Total: Texas Tech-Creighton Under 133.5 (-110) ★★★★
Creighton is one of the best offensive teams in the country and seamlessly plays through the post with big man Ryan Kalkbrenner to free up a bevy of open shooters. However, none of the Bluejays' first four opponents had anyone in the front court who could neutralize Kalkbrenner, while Mark Adams' squad can offset him with Daniel Batcho, one of the best defensive big men in the country.
Batcho's rim protection is a big reason why the Red Raiders block the 13th-highest percentage of shots in the country, and this being a 2:30 p.m. ET game means it's 9:30 a.m. in Hawaii, which could have each team sleepwalking, especially early.
Upset: Temple (+202) ★★
Temple earned a huge non-conference home win over Temple and a neutral-site victory over Rutgers and comes into this matchup against St. John's in Brooklyn with plenty of momentum. The Owls' two losses have come in overtime this season, but we expect some regression in what should be a tight game throughout.
To beat the Red Storm, one has to be able to handle their pressure. Temple's five sophomore starters have turned the ball over on just 18.4% of possessions and possess enough length defensively - especially on the wings - to challenge jump shots.
Nebraska squandered a seven-point halftime lead on the road against St. John's, but we expect a more veteran bunch that ranks in the top 80 in minutes continuity to handle the pressure much more effectively.
Prop Pick: Bellarmine team total Under (Off) ★★★★
Defensively, Bellarmine's compact defense - which makes teams shoot over the top - should be able to limit Duke's quick strike ability, as the Knights spend the 343rd-longest time per possession on defense. However, that philosophy will also limit Bellarmine's offensive ceiling, as will Duke's elite athleticism and size.
Bellarmine will not see another opponent all season with players that go 6-foot-8, 6-foot-10, and 7-foot on their front line, and the Blue Devils' athleticism should cause problems for a usually discipline Knights squad.
Duke allows the sixth-lowest 3-point percentage in the country and limited Kansas to just 3-of-19 shooting from deep (15.8%) in a high-profile matchup last week.
Where to Bet on College Basketball
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College basketball best bets from 11/21/2022 at 6:26 a.m. ET.