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Pelle Larsson #3 of the Arizona Wildcats shoots a free throw against the Houston Cougars during the second half in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 Round at AT&T Center on March 24, 2022 in San Antonio, Texas.
Pelle Larsson #3 of the Arizona Wildcats shoots a free throw against the Houston Cougars during the second half in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Sweet 16 Round at AT&T Center on March 24, 2022 in San Antonio, Texas. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP

The Arizona Wildcats are set to face the Cincinnati Bearcats in the opening round of the Maui Invitational on Monday. Read on for our Cincinnati-Arizona picks and predictions.

It is tropical time during Feast Week, as the 2022 Maui Invitational will get started on Monday to kick off one of the better college basketball tournaments of the season. This year’s event is as loaded as ever, which includes an opening-round matchup between Arizona and Cincinnati.

The Wildcats, who lost in the Sweet 16 as a No. 1 seed during last year’s NCAA Tournament, are off to a 3-0 start on the new season and rank No. 14 in the nation. The Bearcats (3-1) are coming off a 64-51 loss to Northern Kentucky entering tonight’s battle in Lahaina, Hawaii. 

Here are our Cincinnati-Arizona picks for Monday (odds via BetMGM, Superbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our college basketball best bets for Monday.

Cincinnati vs. Arizona Game Info

Date: Monday, Nov. 21, 11:30 p.m. ET
Location: Lahaina Civic Center in Lahaina, Hawaii

Cincinnati vs. Arizona Odds

Cincinnati vs. Arizona Analysis

The Wildcats are the better team on paper, which is why they opened as an 8-point favorite across the board. The spread got as high as 10.5 at one point, but appears to have settled at 9.5. The total has climbed up to 159 after opening at 157.

Per the sportsbook consensus at, 62% of the handle is on the Bearcats while 67% of tickets are on the Wildcats. The total climbing is also no surprise, as the betting public tends to steam the Over every year in the Maui Invitational.

Check out our top sites for Maryland sports betting.

Cincinnati vs. Arizona Picks

  • Spread: Cincinnati +9.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ★★★
  • Over/Under: Under 159.5 (-110 via Superbook) ★★★★
  • Prop: Arizona Under 85.5 (-120 via FanDuel) ★★★★

Cincinnati vs. Arizona ATS Pick

Cincinnati +9.5 (-105) ★★★

It is pretty telling that the 10.5-point spread has since disappeared, despite more bets being on the better team. The Bearcats haven’t beaten the Wildcats in three tries, but we just need them to stay within a few possessions during this late-night contest on a neutral court.

Cincinnati has struggled to hit shots to begin the year, but it has rebounded well. The Bearcats are boasting a 38.3% offensive rebound rate, which ranks 17th in the nation via Kenpom. They also employ a full-court pressure defense 30.3% of the time, per Synergy, and have forced four 10-second violations on the year.

Arizona should win this game, but it might prove to be too much work to win by double-digits. Thanks to BetMGM’s current offering of -105 juice on the 9.5-point spread, bettors can head over there to get the best possible price on the underdog.

Cincinnati vs. Arizona O/U Pick 

Under 159.5 (-110) ★★★★

The reason why this total is so high is because Arizona has the fifth-best offensive efficiency in the country, according to Kenpom. The Wildcats are also the fastest team in the nation, scoring over 100 points in two of their first three games.

Yet we are betting against this game getting to 160 points in the late hours. For Cincinnati to have a shot of staying within striking distance, this team has to slow the game down a bit. The Bearcats rank 231st in average possession length on offense and 270th in average possession length on defense.

According to most of the computer projections, this total is a touch too high. ShotQuality projects an 81-72.7 victory for the Wildcats, which would give us nearly six points of value on the Under. Just make sure you place your bet at Superbook, as other sportsbooks are already down to 159 or even 158.5.

Cincinnati vs. Arizona Prop Pick

Arizona Under 85.5 (-120) ★★★★

We are betting on the Wildcats to finish with their lowest point total on the year during their first neutral-site contest. The fact that FanDuel has this mark set 85.5 — a full two points higher than BetRivers or Pinnacle — should be pretty telling about what the market believes.

Kenpom projects an 83-74 win for Arizona, while Bart Torvik’s website is predicting an 80-72 victory for the Wildcats. No matter how you slice it, this team total is a bit high. Look for Arizona to finish with 85 points or fewer on the island tonight.  

Where to Bet on Cincinnati-Arizona Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Cincinnati-Arizona picks made 11/21/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET