Choose Valparaiso ATS As Your NCAA Basketball Pick vs. St. Mary's

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, March 22, 2016 3:35 PM UTC

Tuesday, Mar. 22, 2016 3:35 PM UTC

St. Mary’s Gaels travel to N. Indiana and there, they will face the Valpo Crusaders, who have lost only to Wright St. in 17 home outings this season. See my NCAA basketball pick inside.

St. Mary’s vs. Valparaiso
That includes wins in this event on this floor by (84-73) over Texas Southern (as 16 point home favorite) and by (81-69) over Florida St. last Thursday (as 4 point favorite). Entering the season with 5returning starters and off a 28-6 SU record of last season, post-season play was expected of Valpo. For St. Mary’s, it has been another fabulous coaching job by Randy Bennett, whose 21-10 SU team of last year had no returning starters.

The Gaels’ story has been recounted by this analyst on many occasions this season. On his annual recruiting foray to Australia, Randy Bennett again unearthed quality contributors. He put them together with transfers and existing talent to craft a team that began the year 13-1 SU, 12-0 ATS. But, when the Gaels lost their WCC CCT Final to Gonzaga, it left them on the periphery of the NCAA Bubble. After a lethargic win vs. New Mex St., they thumped a quality Georgia team to bring them to tonight’s stage. A highly-efficient offense shoots 51% from the field and 41% from the arc with a 16.8/9.6 assist/TO ratio. Along with a (+5.6) rebound margin, the Gaels allow just 61% on 41% shooting. Their lone flaw is forcing just 9.6 TOs per game. 

For the home team, they felt they did enough to get an NCAA bid, but the non-conference strength of schedule, which did not show a quality win, was their undoing when they lost to Green Bay in the CCT. Much like St. Mary’s, they slumbered through an opening win in this event, before defeating a quality Florida St. team. 

Tonight, they have the advantage of the strong home court of their Rec Center, where they are 33-2 SU the last 2 years, including 16-1 SU this season. The numbers are similar to St. Mary’s on the defensive end with a (+9.4) rebound margin, while allowing just 63 PPG on 38% shooting. Valpo, however, has a bit more upside on the offensive end at 76 PPG. Combined with the best player on the floor in Alec Peters (19/9), it is enough to get the job done against a valiant St. Mary’s team, whose highly successful season at last comes to a close.

 I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds boards in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball pick on the Valpo Crusaders tonight.

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Free NCAA Basketball Pick: Valparaiso -3
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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