Can Creighton Upset Nova On Their Senior Night?

Villanova Wildcats

Kevin Stott

Saturday, February 25, 2017 4:22 PM GMT

Saturday, Feb. 25, 2017 4:22 PM GMT

Both Villanova and Creighton are coming in off losses heading into this Big East matinee. Is looking at the Total the wisest approach here or will the defending national champion Wildcats come out clawing after losing to Butler here midweek?

Odds Overview

Defending national champions and #2 Villanova welcome #23 Creighton (22-6 SU, 17-9 ATS) to The Pavilion in Villanova on Saturday for a huge Big East matchup and Senior Day for the hosts. Offshores have opened Villanova 10-point favorites with the NCAAB odds showing the Total opening at 150.

 Creighton Bluejays

Creighton has been impressive on the Road (7-2 SU/ATS) but the loss of G Maurice Watson Jr. (Knee) has made the Bluejays a team which had an outside chance at making a run at a championship into one now maybe lucky to find a Sweet Sixteen spot at best, as displayed in the 68-66 loss in Omaha to Providence as a 6½-point favorites Tuesday (148). Creighton lost 80-70 to Villanova in Omaha New Year’s Eve as 1½-point underdogs (154½) when Watson was healthy.

The Bluejays are 21-5 ATS L26 following ATS Loss but catch the Wildcats at the worst time coming off their own upset loss, in Philly and on Senior Day. The Under is 7-3 L10 Saturday Creighton games.

 

Villanova Wildcats

Villanova comes in off an ugly 74-66 loss to Butler in Philadelphia Wednesday as 10-point chalks (139), the Wildcats second loss of the season to the Bulldogs. The Wildcats have been an Under team this season (10-18 O/U) with the Under 12-7 L17 vs. Big East, 6-2 L8 after SU Loss and 14-5 L19 overall.

Villanova (10/1  to win NCAA Basketball championship, with WagerWeb) is 2-8 ATS L10 overall, 2-7 ATS L9 vs. Big East and 0-5 ATS L5 at Home but 35-17 ATS L52 Saturdays.

 

Beware of Potential Late-Game Senior Night Ambivalence

The favorite is 5-1 ATS L6 while the Under is 3-1-1 L5, but those series mini-Trends are meaningless here with the Wildcats 2-8 ATS L10, Watson out for the Jays and Senior Night bringing its own reality.

“The crowd will be the best Villanova home crowd of the year,” said professional bettor Dave Malinsky on Pregame.com’s FIRST PREVIEW Friday. “And what happens, not just the seniors play hard, but it’s the other kids playing hard for the seniors.” Malinsky also made a wise point about the reality which often occurs when coaches empty benches in the waning minutes of a Senior Night game when up big, often shrinking 20-point leads to closer to 10 in the end.

“Sometimes you look to the first half instead of the full game for these Senior [Night] settings,” Malinsky said. So with Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart playing their last games in front of the home crowd, back ‘Nova First Half may be the best approach.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Villanova 84 Creighton 69Free NCAAB Pick: Villanova -10Best Line Offered: at Skybook

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