Breaking Down The 2016 SUPER RATS Of NCAA Basketball Betting

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, January 26, 2016 4:12 PM GMT

Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2016 4:12 PM GMT

Joe Gavazzi presents the 2016 SUPER RATS of NCAA basketball betting. Don't miss this special coverage with several other articles that'll help you improve your NCAA basketball picks.

The 2016 College Basketball SUPER RATS
By Joe Gavazzi, Winning Sports Advice
Monday, January 25, 2016

In the month of January, I have been examining the importance of the concepts of rebounding, assists, and turnover margin. In each of the three articles I’ve written, our isolated teams qualified by having A POSITIVE REBOUND MARGIN, A POSITIVE ASSIST/TO MARGIN, AND A POSITIVE NET TO MARGIN. These articles have proven that controlling the basketball off the boards, taking care of the basketball, sharing the basketball for good shot selection, and forcing turnovers are the combination of fundamentals which lead to success both in the W/L column and in the ATS column.

In the first week, we used the qualifier of defensive numbers to give us a list of Defensive Dandies, which beat the line 60% of the time. In the next week, we used our strong fundamental numbers, along with superior offensive numbers, to isolate a group of teams we called the Smooth Operators of CBKB. Again, the teams cashed almost 60% of the time against the spread. Last week, our teams were called BRATS, with the B standing for balance. That is each of our qualifying teams had to be in the top half of BOTH the offensive and defensive stats. Again, the list approached near 60% ATS efficiency. This week, in what I expect to be the fourth and final article on this subject, I examine the SUPER RATS for 2016 CBKB. 

In order to qualify for the SUPER RATS list, the SUM of our teams’ rebound margin, assist/TO margin, and net TO margin must equal 10 or more. By now, you are familiar with the columns in our list. Let’s get right to it and analyze our Super RATS.

Team

SU

ATS

Dog

ATS

Rebound

Margin

A/TO

Margin

TO

Margin

Sum

Arkansas

9-10

8-7

4-4

1.6

5.9

3.1

10.6

Baylor

15-4

5-7

1-2

9.3

7.0

1.4

17.7

Butler

13-6

8-11

2-5

4.3

4.9

2.8

11.9

BYU

14-7

10-8

2-3

6.0

3.7

0.6

10.3

Cincinnati

15-6

7-10

1-1

5.8

4.6

2.8

13.2

Creighton

14-6

12-7

2-2

2.3

5.3

2.5

10.1

Hawaii

16-2

6-5

1-1

6.6

3.7

2.8

13.1

Indiana

18-2

12-8

2-1

8.4

2.9

0.0

11.3

Iowa

16-3

10-6

3-0

0.9

7.9

3.9

12.7

Iowa St

15-4

9-7

2-0

3.0

5.3

2.0

10.3

Kansas

16-3

11-6

-

5.5

5.1

2.5

13.1

Louisville

17-2

10-5

2-0

11.2

1.9

3.3

16.4

N Carolina

18-2

10-10

-

9.3

7.9

3.4

20.6

N Illinois

17-3

8-6

1-2

7.6

2.2

2.5

12.3

Northwestern

15-6

9-9

2-3

3.5

6.5

0.7

10.7

Notre Dame

13-5

8-8

3-1

4.7

5.2

0.8

10.7

Pitt

16-3

9-7

2-1

8.6

6.9

0.3

15.8

Princeton

11-4

2-4

1-2

5.1

4.0

1.6

10.7

SMU

18-1

6-9

-

11.4

5.7

0.3

17.4

St Mary’s

16-2

12-4

1-0

8.8

9.0

0.7

18.5

Texas A&M

17-2

8-6

1-0

3.1

6.9

4.6

14.6

Texas Arl

14-4

12-4

4-1

9.7

3.9

2.8

16.4

VCU

15-5

10-4

4-3

1.7

3.3

5.4

10.3

Valpo

17-4

10-7

2-1

9.7

0.1

1.0

10.8

Virginia

15-4

7-10

-

4.9

5.5

2.8

13.2

WVU

16-3

10-5

2-1

10.3

1.2

5.4

16.9

Wichita St

14-5

11-6

0-1

5.1

3.9

4.8

13.8

Xavier

17-2

12-6

1-1

9.6

3.3

1.2

14.1

As you can see from above, our 27 teams win 80% of their games. Most importantly for our purposes, they are cashing 57% of the time against the point spread and we are keeping that in mind for our NCAA basketball picks. This is a solid winning percentage considering that in the last month these teams’ excellence has been compensated by the line maker. Best way to use this list is to consider it to be a fundamental indicator of a team’s excellence. When included with strong situations, such as second meet revengers in the month of February, along with home/road dichotomies and coaching personality profiles, this handicapping formula can lead to plenty of point spread winners. Remember, the secret to success of a winning basketball team is to play defense, rebound, take good shots, and force turnovers. So, make sure you use this list next time you make a choice based on the NCAA basketball odds boards of your sportsbook of choice.

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