Bracketology Education: No. 6 Vs. No. 11 Seeding Trends

Notre Dame Fighting Irish players celebrating

Jay Pryce

Saturday, March 4, 2017 8:48 PM GMT

Saturday, Mar. 4, 2017 8:48 PM GMT

In the sixth of an eight-part series exploring seeding trends for the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, we examine the No. 6 and No. 11 seeds & their past betting trends with March Madness right around the corner.

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Selection Sunday for the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament takes place March 12, but it's never too early to begin handicapping the much-anticipated event. To help, we will roll out an updated version of the eight-part series on March Madness seeding trends painstakingly put together last year by SBR Picks contributor LT Profits. It poured through historic betting market data since 2001 to provide ATS records and more for each of the first-round pairings. Look for updated write-ups on Thursday and Friday of each week heading into the Big Dance. Do note the results look over the past play-in game arrangement involving the 64th and 65th seeds as well as the expanded 68-team format starting in 2011.

 

No. 6 Vs. No. 11

Three 6-seeds lost in the opening round last season, making this first-round matchup the most likely to see an upset in the last 15 years. Arizona lost to Wichita State 65-55 as a 1-point favorite, Texas fell to Northern Iowa 75-72 as 3-point chalk, and Seton Hall tipped off a 2-point underdog—the second pup in the last two tournaments—in a 68-52 defeat to Gonzaga. Notre Dame was the only program to progress with a 70-63 win over Michigan. Since 2001, 3-seeds are 37-27 SU and 30-33-1 ATS in the opener. The average margin of victory is a narrow 2.3 points per game.

 

No. 6 Post First-Round Performance

Six-seeds put in subpar performances in the second round as well. Since 2001, teams are 16-21 SU and 17-18-2 ATS overall. Often they run into 3-seeds here, going 10-21 outright (13-16-2 ATS). Three-seeds are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS versus all others (14-seeds). Michigan snuck by Stephen F. Austin 76-75 as 2-point chalk on the NCAA Basketball Odds last season.

The Sweet 16 is all but a death knell for 6-seeds in the modern era. In the last 15 years, they are 4-12 SU, but a respectable 9-6-1 ATS. Often pitted against 2-seeds, they are 2-10 SU, losing by 6.4 points per game.

The Elite Eight has been the end of the line for 6-seeds. They are 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS since 2001. Michigan advanced last season after beating No. 7 Wisconsin in the Cinderella round but was thoroughly handled by top-seed North Carolina 88-74 in the Regional Finals. The Wolverines tipped off 9-point underdogs for the meeting.

 

No. 11 Post First-Round Performance

The 11-seeds lucky enough to advance carried a decent amount of momentum into the Round of 32. Since 2001, they are 11-16 SU and 13-13-1 ATS. Impressive here is the fact they have squared off against 3-seeds in all but two of the 27 matchups.

In the Sweet 16, 3-seeds are 4-7 SU and 5-5-1 ATS. Last season, Gonzaga actually tipped off a 4-point favorite in their matchup with 10-seed Syracuse but lost 63-60 after surrendering a 9-point second half lead.

A pair of 11-seeds advanced beyond the Elite Eight in recent years: George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011. Each lost in their debut Final Four games but realized the potential of solid mid-major teams making a run in the tournament. Don't sleep on 11-seeds when seeking bracket-busters.

 

Click Here To Read Our No. 5 Vs. No. 12 Seeding Trends
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