Bracketology Education: No. 4 Vs. No. 13 Seeding Trends

Syracuse Orange

Jay Pryce

Friday, February 24, 2017 3:22 PM GMT

In the fourth of an eight-part series exploring seeding trends for the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament, we examine the No. 4 and No. 13 seeds & their past betting trends with March Madness right around the corner. 

Selection Sunday for the 2017 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament takes place March 12, but it's never too early to begin handicapping the much-anticipated event. To help, we will roll out an updated version of the eight-part series on March Madness seeding trends painstakingly put together last year by SBR Picks contributor LT Profits. It poured through historic betting market data since 2001 to provide ATS records and more for each of the first-round pairings. Look for updated write-ups on Thursday and Friday of each week heading into the Big Dance. Do note the results look over the past play-in game arrangement involving the 64th and 65th seeds as well as the expanded 68-team format starting in 2011.

 

No. 4 Vs. No. 13

Bracket busting tends to pick up a little steam in the early rounds with 4-seeds. As noted in earlier write-ups, since 2001, seeds 1-3 are 179-13 SU in the first round. The record for 4-seeds is 50-14 SU, equaling the top seed's total number of losses combined. In the betting market, they are 32-31-1 ATS in the opener. Cal lost outright 77-66 to Hawaii as a 5.5-point point favorite last season.

 

No. 4 Post First-Round Performance

Moving on to the Round of 32, 4-seeds are 29-21 SU and 22-27-1 ATS, winning by a slim 2.6 points per game on average. Kentucky slipped up as 3.5-point chalk against No. 5 Indiana 73-67 in this round last year.

The Sweet 16 is where 4-seeds hit rock bottom. In last year’s tournament, Iowa State and Duke each fell to top seeds Virginia (84-71) and Oregon (82-68) in the regional semifinals. This is a common occurrence as No.4 and No.1 have clashed in this round 25 out of the 29 matchups since 2001. Overall, 4-seeds are 9-20 SU and 14-15 ATS.

For those lucky enough to reach the Elite Eight, 4-seeds are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS. What’s interesting to note is that the group is 4-1 SU and ATS when squaring off against better seeds (2 and 3). In the Final Four, 4-seeds are a lowly 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. The 2013 Michigan Wolverines is the only representative to make it to the title game, losing 82-76 as 4-point underdogs against Louisville.

 

No. 13 Post First-Round Performance

Those lucky enough to enjoy a first round upset are 3-11 SU and 5-8-1 ATS in the Round of 32 since 2001. Last season, Hawaii fell to Maryland 73-60 as a 7.5-point underdog, a greater spread than its first-round upset over Cal. The Sweet 16 is the final destination for the three survivors (Bradley 2006, Ohio 2012, La Salle 2013), losing by a 75.0-62.3 average score. It should be noted, Valparaiso and Oklahoma each reached the regional semifinals in 1998 and 1999 as 13-seeds. Richmond was the first to achieve this in 1988.

Click Here To Read Our No. 3 vs. No. 14 Seeding Trends Article