Boise St. vs. Dayton NCAA Tournament Picks: Against the Spread

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, March 18, 2015 1:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 18, 2015 1:48 PM UTC

As the 2015 NCAA Tournament offers bettors a plentiful slate to choose from, this handicapper hones in on the value of Boise State vs. Dayton. Find out why backing Dayton ATS is the best bet.


NCAA Tournament Picks: Dayton, OH: Boise St. vs. Dayton (-4) 9:10 ET TRU TV
The Boise St. Broncos travel to Dayton as part of the 2015 NCAA tournament to meet the Flyers in this 9:10 ET matchup on TRU TV.  Though the NCAA works religiously to avoid home court advantage in this event, their seeding procedure and the fact they were locked into UD Arena for this matchup, has placed Dayton on their home court.  The game features one of the hottest teams in the NCAA against one of the few remaining CBKB undefeated home courts in America.  There are more similarities than not in this contest of small ball teams who aspire to cash this winning chip and move onto a Friday matchup vs. Providence in nearby Columbus, OH.  

On December 20th, Boise was forced to respond to the fact that their lead scorer, Drmic, would miss the balance of the season with an ankle injury.  It took a couple of weeks for the Broncos to adjust.  But since a 65-54 loss at Wyoming on January 10th dropped them to 10-5 SU, 5-7 ATS (0-3 SU in MWC play), Boise St. has responded with a run of 15-3 SU ATS.   As such, they are one of the hottest teams in America.  Credit the play of Derrick Marks, who averaged 19 PPG for the season, for leading the turnaround.  When the Broncos lost to Wyoming last week in the CCT, they were happy just to hear their name called on selection Sunday.  This may be a solid road team to consider with NCAA Tournament Picks with an 11-7 ATS away or neutral spread mark.  But, they are forced to play 2 time zones east at what will be a very strong venue, favoring the home team.  

Dayton is 66-12 SU at their home arena L4Y.  This includes 16-0 SU this year with every victory by 3 or more point and an average winning margin by a score of 73-59 (compare to 64-63 away).   Shortcomings (pun intended) of this UD team include the fact they have but a 6-man rotation with no one in their lineup who is taller than 6’6”.  Along with their strong home court, they do feature the coaching of 4th year mentor, Archie Miller and the pedigree of appearing in the Elite 8 last year.  With experienced players, Siebert and Pierre, still in the lineup, they have plenty of experience on which to draw.

Major site advantage favors Dayton in this, along with their NCAA experience from last year.  Must back them at this price, as Miller figures to have an answer for Marks that will give the edge to Dayton at all positions on the floor!

NCAA Basketball Picks: Take Dayton -4.5 at Bovada

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