Big Underdog Value: Bet TCU +10.5 Our NCAA Basketball Pick Over Kansas St.

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, March 2, 2016 4:03 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 2, 2016 4:03 PM UTC

Big 12 rivals collide as TCU travels to take on Kansas State. Let’s review this matchup of two struggling clubs to determine which side to choose in our NCAA basketball picks.

TCU Horned Frogs (11-18 SU, 10-13 ATS)
TCU is reeling after dropping their last five and seven of their last eight straight up. During those eight contests the Horned Frogs have covered the NCAA basketball odds in only three of those games. It has been another disappointing season for a team that went 4-14 straight up in conference play last season and is currently 2-14 in Big 12 play this year.

In their last outing the Frogs hosted the Baylor Bears and were installed as nine point home dogs. Even that was not enough for all those who grabbed the points and included TCU in their NCAA basketball picks on Saturday night. It was just another in a series of blowouts as Baylor coasted to a 86-71 victory in hostile territory. The Bears bullied the Frogs down low outrebounding them 45-21 and held a 25-7 advantage in put-back points. TCU’s leading scorer sophomore guard Chauncey Collins scored 17 points and drilled five of eight three-pointers in the loss.

The Frogs are not doing much of anything well both on the court and on the stat sheet as they are averaging just 67.4 PPG (296th), allowing 70.9 PPG (155th) and 34.1 rebounds per game ranking them 279th in the nation.


Kansas State Wildcats (15-14 SU, 14-11 ATS)
The Wildcats enter this contest having lost their last three both straight up and against the number while notching just one win over the course of their last six games. Their last game against No. 17 ranked Iowa State was more of the same as the Wildcats bowed 80-61 as 8 ½ point road underdogs. To their credit the ‘Cats kept it close in the first half trailing by only a point at the break but the second half belonged to the Cyclones as they outscored Kansas State 49-31. The Wildcats have not had it easy this season in terms of their schedule as they have now played 13 ranked teams which surpassed a school record of 12 that occurred in the 2010-2011 and 2014-2015 seasons.

Kansas State is averaging just 70.6 points per game (242nd), allowing 67.6 PPG (74th) and tallying 36.8 rebounds per game ranking them tied for 136th nationally. Senior guard Justin Edwards and junior forward Wesley Iwundu are the only Wildcats averaging in double figures this season with 12.1 and 12.0 points per game respectively. Edwards also leads the team in rebounds with 5.7 per game.


Betting Analysis
On February 16th these teams met for the first time this season with Kansas State being saddled as 4½ point road favorites. The result was not nearly as close as the oddsmakers anticipated as the ‘Cats rolled to a 63-49 victory. However, both teams shot poorly with Kansas State shooting just 38.8 percent while the Frogs shot a woeful 32.7 percent. TCU’s leading scorer Chauncey Collins was just 3-of-13 and finished the game with nine points. It should be noted that TCU’s center Chris Washburn picked up two quick fouls early in the contest and sat the remaining 16 plus minutes of the first half.

TCU is just 2-10 on the road this season but 5-7 ATS in those games while Kansas State 11-5 straight up and 7-6 ATS at home. It’s a pretty fair statement that the Wildcats will win this one but as I look at the college basketball odds I can’t help but think this number is a bit high considering we are looking at a favorite that is just 4-12 in conference play and averages only 70 points per game. I realize K-State handled TCU easily last time around and now they are on their home court but I believe we have a value bet here in TCU with all those points against a team that’s not all that great either. Expect Chauncey Collins to play much better than last time to help keep this close…enough.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: TCU +10½ 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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