Big Underdog Value: Bet NC State As Our NCAA Basketball Pick vs. Virginia

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, February 15, 2016 5:54 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 15, 2016 5:54 PM UTC

The NC State Wolfpack travel to face the Virginia Cavaliers. Let's review the NCAA basketball Odds to come up with the best selection for this game.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: NC State +12
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek


NC State vs. Virginia 7:00PM ET
Now, Virginia must turnaround 2 days later to face an NC State team, who is in a number of positive situations. The Wolfpack travel to C-ville to face the Wahoos in this 7:00 PM ET tip, as televised as part of Big Monday by ESPN. Virginia, a Top 10 team once again this year, will look to extend their SU dominance in the series with a 4thstraight series win and a 7th straight on this court against NC State. Last year, the scores were 51-47 and 61-51. Either of those will get the money for the Wolfpack tonight.  

Once again, Virginia is among the national leaders in defense, allowing less than 60 PPG. Prior to their narrow loss but cover to Duke, Virginia was on a 7-0 SU run. In the last 4 of those, they had held the opposition to only 48 PPG. If that number strikes a chord, it is because that is what Virginia has allowed the Wolfpack to score in each of the previous 3 meetings, while surrendering just 33% from the field. Despite the positive record and positive numbers, this has not been one of Bennett’s better Virginia teams in recent years (UVA won 60 games the last 2 years). They have been hurt by the decreased shot clock and the inability to “grab and hold.” As a result, their record as conference favorite has declined to 3-7 ATS of late. Now, they must face an NC State team in its ideal role.  

The Wolfpack enter tonight off a (99-88) win and cover at home vs. Wake Forest on Saturday. It was the 4th consecutive victory against the spread for the Wolfpack. Leading the way in recent games has been junior guard, Cat Barber, who is averaging 24 PPG this season.  After a 38 point scoring onslaught Saturday, the red hot Barber is now averaging 32 PPG, shooting 53% in his most recent 5 games.  In 5 of his last 7 games, Barber has scored 30 points. He may not reach that mark against the stingy Virginia “pack-line defense,” which will clog the middle against him and react to his possession of the ball outside the arc. Nonetheless, this has been an outstanding role for 5th year NC State HC Gottfried. His teams are 28-12 ATS with revenge, including 10-1 ATS recently on the road with revenge.  In addition, the Wolfpack is a perfect 6-0-1 ATS on the road this season and has lifted their record to 11-1 ATS as ACC road dog with covers in this role this season at Duke, Florida St., Pitt and N. Carolina. In fact, although the Wolfpack is just 3-9 SU in ACC play this season, there has been no loss of more than 12 points, today’s current line.

NC State may not win this game at a very tough court, but I invite you to put the NCAA Basketball odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA Basketball pick on NC State tonight.

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