Big Ten Tournament Championship Game: Bet Michigan St. vs. Purdue

Jake Walker

Saturday, March 12, 2016 10:42 PM GMT

The Purdue Boilermakers and the Michigan State Spartans clash at Bankers Life Fieldhouse with the Big Ten Championship on the line. Michigan State is favored by 4 points on the NCAA Basketball odds board and the total has been set at 145.5.

Purdue
Purdue reached the Big Ten Championship after convincing 89-58 and 76-59 wins against Illinois and Michigan respectively. Overall, Purdue has won five straight games, including today's semifinal contest against Michigan. A.J. Hammons led the way with 27 points and 11 rebounds, going 11 for 17 from the field and blocking three shots. The Boilermakers are after their first Big Ten Tournament title since 2009, when they beat Ohio State in Indianapolis.

Vince Edwards added 13 points for a Purdue team that shot 53 percent (29 for 55) from the field, while Michigan shot just 38 percent (23 for 61). Purdue's dominance inside made the difference, with 22 of their 29 field goals coming in the paint. The Boilermakers outscored the Wolverines 44-28 in the paint, and that will be one of the keys to Sunday's game with Michigan State.

 

Michigan State
The Michigan State Spartans come into the Big Ten Tournament Final with an eight-game winning streak. Michigan State beat Ohio State 81-54 and Maryland 64-61 to reach this instance. Denzel Valentine had 18 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds to help the Spartans win their 12th game over their last 13 while chasing a record-tying fifth Big Ten tournament title.

Maryland scored a tourney-record 97 points against Nebraska but Michigan State held them 25 points below their season average and allowed only two baskets over the last 10:30 minutes of the game. The Spartans have made a strong case for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they will come out ready to prove that they deserve that honor.

 

Betting Trends
Purdue is 10-10 ATS against conference opponents, 8-7 ATS after an ATS win, 2-2 ATS as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in neutral site games. Michigan State is 4-3 ATS in neutral site games, 14-6 ATS against conference opponents, 0-2 ATS on zero days rest, 19-7 ATS after a SU win. 

 

Final Analysis
Michigan State is a 4-point favorite on the NCAA Basketball odds board and the total has been set at 145.5. These two teams met on February 9 and Purdue upset Michigan State 82-81 in overtime. Rapheal Davis, usually known for his defense, played one of the best offensive games of his career, needing just one half to score a season-high 19 points and set a career-high by making five three-pointers. He finished the game with 24 points. When Davis cooled off in the second half, A.J. Hammons stepped up. Overall, he scored 19 points, with a season-high 13 rebounds and eight blocks to equal his career-high.

Denzel Valentine scored 27 points, eight rebounds and 10 assists to lead Michigan State and the only other Spartans to reach double figures were Matt Costello with 11 points and Matt McQuaid with 10. Michigan State shot just 31.5 percent from the field in the first half, while Purdue was just 11 of 36 in the final 25 minutes. Other than Davis, who finished 6 of 8 from three-point range, the teams combined to go 13 of 36 from beyond the arc.

The Spartans remember that tough loss against the Boilermakers and they want to make a statement in this game as they look to secure a high seed in the NCAA Tournament. I like a Michigan State team playing with a chip on their shoulders to win the Big Ten title and cover -4 as one of my NCAA Basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Michigan State -4
Best Line Offered: at Heritage