Big East Clash: Xavier Our Sharp NCAA Basketball Pick vs. Providence

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, January 26, 2016 3:52 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2016 3:52 PM UTC

Xavier travels to Providence Tuesday night, where they will meet the Friars at the Dunkin Donuts Center for this 8:30 ET tip. Check our free NCAA basketball pick inside.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2936167, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
NCAA Basketball Pick: Xavier +1
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Xavier vs. Providence 8:30PM ET
The Musketeers will have plenty of respect for Providence, as each team stands 5-2 SU in Big East play. The teams have a combined 5 losses and each trails Villanova by 1 game in the standings. The reasons for the Xavier respect are two-fold. First, the Friars won this matchup last year on this court (69-66) in OT as a 2 point home favorite. Next is the fact that there were divergent results, when each of these teams play league leader, Villanova. The Wildcats defeated Xavier in Philly by a score of 95-64 to tip off the Big East season on December 31st. On Sunday, Providence visited Villanova as our Game of the Week. Providence (as 13 point road dog) defeated the Wildcats in OT (82-76). In searching for value, you will note that the 11 point line swing, when Villanova faced each of these two teams on their home floor.  Yet, considering a 4 point home court value for Providence, there is now only a 4 point differential in the line, leaving us a value of 5 points favoring Xavier today.  

One of my favorite situations in college sports is in play today! It deals with a team priced as the inferior team today, who comes off a win in their previous game as a double digit conference dog. When their opponent is also off a victory and is not favored by more than 6 points, it is an over 70% ATS situation favoring the road team (against the home team who pulled the upset). Working hand in glove with this situational play is the fact that Xavier is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in road or neutral games (only loss at Villanova) with each of those victories by 8 or more points.

From a fundamental perspective, we note that Xavier is one of our super rats, see today’s Article. The Musketeers have a +9.6 rebound margin, a +3.3 assist/TO margin and a +1.2 net TO margin. They also average 80 PPG on offense, while shooting 45% from the field, 36% from the arc and converting over 74% from the stripe. With a defense allowing 40% from the field and 31% from the arc, this team is the real deal. I invite you to put the NCAA basketball odds in your favor and join me in my NCAA basketball pick on the Xavier Musketeers. 

comment here