Big-12 Betting: Oklahoma vs. Iowa State NCAA Basketball Picks ATS

Darin Zank

Monday, March 2, 2015 3:58 PM GMT

Before betting on this NCAA Basketball matchup, understand that Oklahoma has won three games in a row, while Iowa State has lost two straight. Nonetheless the Cyclones are small home favorites.

 

Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
Most NCAA Basketball odds boards opened this game with Iowa State favored by four or 4.5 points, the total offered at right around 152. In the early betting most books bumped the Cyclones to -5 and -5.5, while dropping the total to 151 and 150.

 

Sooners-Cyclones: The Situation
Iowa State recently won three in a row to pull within a game of the lead in the Big 12, but has lost its last two games, after Saturday's 70-69 debacle at Kansas State. The Cyclones led that game by a dozen about mid-way through the second half, and by a point with 20 seconds to go, but threw away an in-bounds pass, resulting in the game-losing basket.

ISU only shot 43 percent from the floor Saturday, and let the Wildcats shoot 48 percent.

Last Wednesday the Cyclones shot just 43 percent in losing at home to Baylor 79-70.

At 20-8 overall Iowa State will be going back to the Dance for the fourth straight season. At 10-6 in conference play the Cyclones are tied for third place with Baylor and West Virginia, but would have to play a first-round game in the Big 12 tournament, if it started today.

Oklahoma has won three in a row and eight of its last nine after holding off TCU Saturday 67-60. The Sooners, favored by 11 points, actually trailed by eight at the half Saturday, and by five well into the second half, then ended the game on a 17-5 run. Still, that wasn't enough for the cover.

OU may have been a little rusty Saturday, after having the entire week off, following last Saturday's 79-75 overtime victory at Texas Tech. But the Sooners couldn't cover at -9 that day, and are 0-4 ATS over their last four games.

At 20-8 overall Oklahoma will go back to the NCAA tournament for the third straight season. At 11-5 in conference play the Sooners only trail first-place Kansas by a game, and they host the Jayhawks this Saturday in the regular-season finale for both teams. But they're also only a game ahead of Baylor, Iowa State and West Virginia in that battle for first-round byes in the upcoming Big 12 Conference tournament.

 

The Recent Rivalry
Since Coach Kruger took over in Norman and the Mayor took reign in Ames Iowa State has taken five of eight meeting from the Sooners. However, Oklahoma has taken three of the last five meetings, including a 94-83 decision at home three weeks ago. That game was tied at the half, but the Sooners began to take over about halfway through the second half, and led at one point by 20, eventually cashing in NCAA basketball picks as five-point favorites.

Oklahoma shot 51 percent from the floor that night, and won the turnover battle by a 14-7 margin.

That game cruised OVER its total of 150.

Last season these teams split two games, each winning on their home court, but the Sooners covered both those contests. Also, both those games played UNDER on the totals, even though those games finished 87-82 and 81-75; the total on that first game was 170, 165 on the second. And those are some big totals.

 

By the Numbers
Oklahoma is shooting 45 percent from the floor this season, while holding opponents to just 38 percent FG shooting, which ranks in the top ten in the country.

Iowa State is shooting 48 percent from the floor, while limiting opponents to 42 percent shooting.

 

Totals Betting Trends
Oklahoma is 15-10 on the UNDERS this season, as Sooners games have averaged 134 points.

Iowa State is 13-10 on the OVERS, as 'Clones games have averaged 149 points.

 

Sooners-Cyclones Free Pick
Iowa State has lost two in a row, which gives us slight pause, but it's still a very tough out at home. And the Cyclones are in need of a bounce-back effort, following last week's two defeats. So while we might think tonight's spread is slightly inflated toward the home team, we'll go with ISU in this spot.

Free College Basketball Pick: Iowa State -5 at The Greek