Betting Trends Suggest Adding Miami +4 Over Louisville to Your NCAA Basketball Picks

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, February 3, 2015 12:28 PM GMT

Miami has been competitive against the top teams in the ACC this season, which makes it a dangerous home underdog against Louisville Tuesday night.

On the Road
Louisville earned a 78-68 come-from-behind victory over North Carolina as five-point home favorites last Saturday, which is important to consider when making your NCAA basketball picks, as it now looks to improve upon its 46-26 SU record in conference road games over the last nine seasons.

The Cardinals own a 7-2 series advantage over the Hurricanes, as they’ve won the last three meetings, including an 82-59 home triumph in the last meeting on Dec. 23, 2006.

It’s important to point out that head coach Rick Pitino owns a 3-0 SU mark in this series, with two of his victories coming during his time at Louisville and a single win during his time at Providence.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the team is 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 to 6 points.

 

Disappointing Results
Miami is coming off an 0-2 SUATS week after suffering losses against Florida State and Georgia Tech, which can’t be ignored when looking over the NCAA basketball odds, as it looks for Angel Rodriguez to get back on track offensively.

The Kansas State transfer scored just eight points in the last two games—far different than his average of 24.3 points in three games versus top-10 opponents during the 2014-15 campaign.

Rodriguez has help in the backcourt with Sheldon McClellan scoring 10-plus points in 16 of the last 18 games, but the entire roster has averaged just 61.0 points on 40.5 percent shooting in its last five contests.

Since the start of the 2012-13 season, the Hurricanes are 12-13 SU and 17-7 ATS as underdogs, with the UNDER going 12-11 in that situation.

Check out another of Jeff's NCAA Basketball Picks today: Indiana vs. Wisconsin.

Key Players
The Cardinals are legitimate contenders to win the 2015 NCAA Tournament if forward Montrezl Harrell can play at a high level consistently, as he’s coming off a performance of scoring 22 points and 15 rebounds.

Sophomore guard Terry Rozier has carried the offense in the last month—averaging 20.9 points over the last 14 games.  He also ranks second in the ACC in steals.

 

Valuing the Basketball
The Hurricanes rank 23rd in the country in taking care of the basketball, as they turn it over on just 16.1 percent of their offensive possessions, while the Cardinals force opponents into making mistakes 23.6 percent of the time.

Rodriguez figures to be the main ball handler due to possessing the basketball 29.9 percent of the time this season, while he occupies the No. 72 spot in terms of assists nationally.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Hurricanes as one of their top NCAA basketball picks, as the Cardinals are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games versus teams with a winning record.

NCAA Basketball Pick:  Miami Hurricanes +4 at Bookmaker