Betting Trends Make Gonzaga +6 The NCAA Basketball Pick vs. SMU

Nikki Adams

Saturday, February 13, 2016 7:51 PM UTC

Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016 7:51 PM UTC

Gonzaga and SMU collide tonight in a tilt that is firmly cornered in the hosts’ camp. Can Gonzaga mastermind the upset? Find out as we preview this game and serve up choice NCAA Basketball picks.

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NCAA Basketball Pick: Gonzaga +6 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Gonzaga (20-5, 12-2)
Gonzaga are a solid 20-5 SU this season, which includes a 12-2 SU record in WCC play. They ride a six-game winning streak into tonight’s date with SMU, a run of form that includes a 4-0 SU record on the road and a 3-3 ATS record overall. They’ll be looking to make it seven in a row in the win column but the NCAAB odds are stacked up against them across sports betting platforms.

Odds makers opened the game on a 6-point line with the Bulldogs to the disadvantage on the road. However, the line is varied from sportsbook to sportsbook with some dropping down to 5.5-points while others increasing to 6.5-points. Clearly, the public reaction is mixed on this game and books are adjusting accordingly.

Gonzaga are 9-13-1 ATS on the season with a 14.9-point winning margin and a plus 0.9-point differential against the spread. On the road, they are 3-5 ATS with a 10.5-point winning margin and a plus 1.2-point differential against the spread.

As away underdogs though they are 1-0 ATS with a 3-point losing margin and a plus 2.-point differential versus the spread. Although how much take away there is from just one occasion as the underdog is debateable.  In non-conference games they are 2-6-1 ATS with a 13.4-point winning margin and a negative 3.2-point differential versus the spread.


SMU (20-3, 9-3)
After reeling off 18 straight wins to start of the season, SMU have slowed down in recent weeks winning just two of their last five games, a run of poor form that has some NCAAB betting fans contemplating the upset on the sports betting floor tonight.

Most recently, the Mustangs lost to Tulsa 82-77 at home, all while trading as the 9-point home chalk. That hasn’t taken the shine off of their NCAA Basketball odds as they are still the favorites to win and cover in the market, but the public is distinctly leaning ever so slightly to the visitors with 55% of spread tickets currently logged in their corner.

SMU are just 8-11 ATS on the season with a 15.4-point winning margin and a negative 1.3-point differential versus the spread. At home, they cut a poor figure with a 2-7 ATS record, albeit underscored by an 18.6-point winning margin and a negative 5.5-point differential versus the spread. In non-conference play, they are 3-4 ATS with a 21.8-point winning margin and a plus 0.4-point differential versus the spread.


NCAAB Betting Verdict
By the stats, SMU haven’t fared well for spread bettors. More often than not they’ve failed to cover for their backers. That alone opens the door for the Bulldogs to potentially take advantage, particularly as they have the momentum right now and the Mustangs seem to have hit a bit of a snag. As such, we’re chancing our NCAA Basketball picks on the visitors as the 6-point underdogs with the best NCAAB odds found at bet365 at the time of writing.

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