#Betting101: Does Villanova Still Have Value?

Jason Lake

Monday, December 11, 2017 1:26 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 11, 2017 1:26 PM UTC

The Villanova Wildcats are playing like the best team in college basketball. But are they the best pick on the NCAAB odds board after going 7-3 ATS through 10 games?

Will the Villanova Wildcats ever get any respect? It’s like everyone’s stuck in the year 1985 or something; Villanova always seems to be undervalued in the marketplace, and they’re already off to a profitable start this year at 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS. The ‘Cats might have even more room for growth at No. 4 on the AP rankings at press time and No. 1 on Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency charts.

Then again, Pomeroy thinks Villanova has been somewhat fortunate this year. According to his Luck Rating metric (credited to Dean Oliver), the Wildcats can attribute .053 of their win percentage to whims of the basketball gods. That’s not what we’d like to see ahead of Wednesday’s road game (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2) against the Temple Owls. We might have to look elsewhere for our next batch of college basketball picks.

Luck Is for Winners

So let’s do just that. Here are the Top 5 and Bottom 5 teams in Luck Rating on the Pomeroy charts at press time:

Wagner (plus-0.297)
Miami-Ohio (plus-0.240)
Navy (plus-0.225)
William & Mary (plus-0.217)
Wofford (plus-0.197)

Lafayette (minus-0.199)
New Mexico (minus-0.200)
Campbell (minus-0.206)
Florida International (minus-0.239)
High Point (minus-0.255)

In theory, the teams at the top of this list can expect worse results overall as their Luck Rating regresses to the mean, while the teams at the bottom can expect to see their fortunes improve. Of course, not all these teams will appear on this week’s NCAAB odds board; the High Point Panthers (Big South) have yet to see a basketball line, for example. Where’s the love for dear old HPU?

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.@HighPointUBBall Topples Toccoa Falls, 110-39 https://t.co/tuK0oKsxna

— High Point Panthers (@HighPointSports) December 10, 2017

The Miami-Ohio RedHawks, on the other hand, are 6-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in the MAC standings. But they’re only No. 293 out of the 351 Division I teams in terms of efficiency, and they might encounter some turbulence Thursday when they visit the DePaul Blue Demons at 9 p.m. Eastern. DePaul (5-4 SU and ATS) ranks No. 120 in overall efficiency, but only No. 239 in Luck Factor at minus-0.032. There are finer things about this matchup to look at before pulling the trigger, like where the line opens at, but circle this one on your betting calendar – and may the sphere be with you.

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